Has Dr Qadri ditched Imran?

Has Dr Allama Tahirul Qadri once again ditched Imran Khan, in what appears to be the action replay of 2014 dharna? His decision not to join in the Raiwind march came as a surprise to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and it indicated the exit strategy of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) leader after he did not get any positive response from certain quarters.

While the PTI leaders are still pushing Imran to go to Raiwind against all advices, Dr Qadri's decision to distance himself from the PTI once again has left Imran high and dry. PTI leader Naeemul Haq's statement that they would invite the opposition leaders also means that they still want to go solo and want other parties presence as symbolic. This appears to be a very poor strategy of the PTI.

Dr Qadri's decision also embarrasses veteran Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, whose efforts to bring all opposition on one platform has failed and Dr Qadri's withdrawal from Raiwind march shocked him.

Intriguing is the timing of his announcement and raised question about his agenda. From the day one, he never looked interested in Panama Papers campaign and that was one of the reasons that he came out with his Qisas Movement.

Since he has also not given any alternative plan either including the march on Islamabad at Saturday's press conference, the PAT once again has backed out after creating massive media hype through Sept 3 rally.

Dr Qadri was disappointed over the cold response from the 'Institution’ he was expecting to take notice of his serious allegations against the prime minister about his alleged links with India.

During Sept-3 rally in Rawalpindi, he kept the option of march on Raiwind or Islamabad open. But, on Saturday he did not give any fresh call for march, and also dropped Raiwind plan.

It is important to assess the politics of PAT. It has a disciplined organisation, and allegedly a strong 'muscle wing’ too, glimpses of which one had witnessed two years back. Dr Qadri has big following but lacks in electoral politics and that is why they never get any seat in elections except for the one he himself got in 2002, thanks to retired General Pervez Musharraf's political game plan.

However, Dr Qadri created history when he resigned from the National Assembly and gave dozens of reasons of quitting, the parliamentary politics. He levelled serious allegations against the parliamentarians but remained silent about Musharraf.

There is no doubt that he is a very good speaker and also knows the art of attracting the media attention, but it is also a fact that mainstream political parties or national leaders have not taken his style of politics seriously.

Therefore, when he levelled serious allegations against none other than the prime minister, and his alleged links with India calling him a security risk, neither the government nor the opposition took him seriously.

His exit strategy came when he came to know that there is no chance of any ouster strategy to overthrow the PM or the PML-N government. His fear now is that he might be facing cases for the allegations he levelled against the PM and the Sharif family.

Thus, his tone got conciliatory on Saturday and he sent a positive message to the government and the Sharif family by distancing himself from the Raiwind march plan. He did not even give any date for the other option i.e. the Islamabad march.

It looks like an action replay of 2014 dharna when after attack on the parliament and on PTV on August 30, he decided to call off his dharna and left Imran alone. This time his exit strategy came too early and that too without creating any rumpus. Critics say this often happened when you go without a script. Will he stay in Pakistan for few more weeks or go back to Canada before Muharram.

During all this period even someone like Sheikh Rashid Ahmad also failed in bringing even Qadri and Imran on one table, though he had announced that soon he would invite both to Lal Haveli, his Rawalpindi residence.

Qadri's announcement is yet another setback for Imran Khan, who few days back gave a harsh statement in support of the victims of Model Town. He knows that art of creating media hype and at time gets more media attention than Imran Khan.

In 2014, also despite Imran being the central figure in the movement against the alleged election rigging and has more stake than Qadri, it was PAT chief, who went so aggressive in the movement that Imran has to take the backseat.

Two events gave him real boost and made Imran Khan look like a junior partner. (1) Model Town and (2) attack on Parliament and PTV. The latter incident even surprised Imran as Qadri's supporters took the street and even were ready to enter parliament and PM House.

In the current situation too, it was Imran, who took the initiative over Panama Papers and started the street campaign when Dr Tahirul Qadri suddenly made a soft entry into the scene and overshadow Panama with Model Town inquiry.

Since his arrival the Model Town issue started getting more prominence than Panama. Thus, while Imran maintained his campaign over Panama papers, Qadri dropped a bombshell with his direct allegations against Sharif's alleged Indian connection.

The purpose apparently seems to divert attention from Panama and took the lead in the movement. Dr Qadri in a way even surprised his own coach Sheikh Rashid Ahmad. Within no time, even TV talk shows started giving more attention to Model Town, PAT highly charged leaders on TV stressed more on the Model Town tragedy.

What Imran and PTI leaders now need to review is the mysterious role of Dr Tahirul Qadri. Whose man is he? Has he come with a plan to sabotage Imran's movement? Why did he not even meet Imran? Is it not time for him to expose the man from Canada?

What Imran needs to understand is Dr Tahirul Qadri? He should have learnt from his 2014 exit strategy as to why he suddenly left the dharna, on whose directive and why? He and his party have never been in the mainstream politics nor have a plan for taking part in 2018 elections. He never gives entry without knowing about the exit gate.

Some of the PTI leaders have rightly advised Khan to give a break, workout long strategy for the next elections and hold intra-party elections. Keep the pressure on the government through joint opposition or even with solo, but don't take irrational decisions like Raiwind march.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

—Originally published in The News