The changing politics of Punjab

Punjab, historically lacks in producing leaders of national stature. Often they come from smaller provinces.

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto despite being from Sindh emerged as the most prominent leader in Punjab.

Sharif’s entry into politics came to counter the myth of Bhuttos and Pakistan People’s Party. The Sharifs from Punjab became its unopposed rulers. Now, after 30 years a man from Mianwali, Imran Khan has become his biggest challenger in Punjab.

The PPP fighting hard to regain Punjab, is posing as if it is the real opposition to Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz. From the looks of it, the next election will be quite challenging, as three different parties will battle for Punjab.

Before Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Punjab’s political leadership by and large remained a proxy of the establishment. Stronger leaders came for Bengal, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan—leaders like Khan Abdul Wali Khan, Maulana Mufti Mahmood, Sardar Attaullah Mengal and Mir Ghous Bux Bizenjo.

Pakistan Muslim League, after the death Quaid-e-Azam and Liaquat Ali Khan, divided into different faction as leaders from Punjab, could not counter Bengali leadership of Muslim League like Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy.

What happened between 1948 to 1958, was disaster for Pakistan, and political failures combined with civil-military bureaucracy conspiracy led to the imposition of first Martial Law in 1958, which through One Unit, laid the foundation of what happened in 1971.

When Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah challenged Ayub Khan in the Presidential election, she could only win from Karachi and Dhakka, while Punjab went with Ayub.

Elections in 1970 were a turning point. Bhutto after leaving Ayub's cabinet made PPP the most popular party of Punjab within three years --1967 to 1970. He used nationalistic and anti-India slogans beside 'roti,kapra and makan.'  In the aftermath of break up of Pakistan, Punjab's political importance become the decisive factor in ruling Islamabad. It still is the key factor.

Bhutto’s rule ended with the imposition of Martial Law on July 5, 1977. Zia promised elections in 90-days, without knowing Bhutto is still popular in Sindh and Punjab, which led to election postponement. Later, Bhutto was hanged in a controversial trial and Zia never faced any serious challenge till his deah in a plane crash on August 17, 1988.  

In the post Bhutto era Punjab politics has revolved around Sharifs even when they were not in power. Nawaz Sharif, created history in 2013, when he become the Prime Minister for the third time. While the duo Sharif (Nawaz and Shahbaz) rarely lost Punjab since 1985. Will they be luck this time in the aftermath of 'Panama papers,' and challenger from Mianwali, Imran Khan.

Historically, Punjab remains proxy of the then Zia establishment. Sharif's political career started with Tehreek-e-Istiqlal (TI) which under the leadership of retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan was launched as an alternate to Bhutto and PPP, to make inroads in Punjab.

Zia wanted someone from Punjab, preferably from central Punjab, who could not only counter PPP, but, also emerged as national leader. Zia, knew that even after Bhutto's hanging his widow and daughter could create problems in his future game plan. 

Baray Mian Sahibb, was not interested in politics nor wanted his sons to join politics. But, he was anti-Bhutto, because his factories had been nationalized by him during PPP, government. The issue was exploited by Zia, and a senior PPP leader revealed an interesting story of Nawaz Sharif's entry into politics, first, through establishment and later on his own.                          

An unimpeachable PML-N source disclosed that Mian Nawaz Sharif for the first time was offered  Ministry in Zia's cabinet while he was the finance Secretary of Tehreek-e-Istiqlal. It was late Majeed Nizami, who convinced Mian Sharif to play a role in politics as Punjab lacked political leadership and as a businessman he could become a force against feduals.

"One day Mr Wazir Ali father of Shahnaz Wazir Ali, who was the TI central leader was sitting with Mian Sharif, when Nawaz Sharif entered and told him about the offer. Wazir Ali  advised him not to join him elections are due," the source said, adding that Sharif said, he couldn't see elections in near future.

"Few days later Mian Sahib took oath as Sports Minister, " the source said.

Later, the establishment build Sharif's political image but since political sentiments were high after Bhutto's execution and Bhutto ladies were in exile, a Sindhi politician, Mohammad Khan Junejo was made the Prime Minister after non-party based elections.

A section of Pakistani left and progressives also backed Sharif as they believe that through industrialization feudalism would get weaker and pave way for progressive politics and strengthen democracy. 

Junejo lost Zia's confidence after Geneva Accord, and the establishment got him sacked. This paved way for Sharif to get control over Muslim League, it paid off with the support of General Zia and former ISI chief Lt. General Hameed Gul.

Zia first held referendum in 1984 to get some legitimacy and later elections on non-party based, in a bid to keep PPP out of politics and secondly to have weak democratic system.

When Benazir decided to end her exile, Zia never thought she would get such a reception. It scared both Zia and Gul, and this led to the formation of Islami Jamohri Ittehad, IJI led by Nawaz Sharif.   

After 1988, Sharifs never looked back and till 1990, Sharifs and the establishment were hand in hand against PPP, to dilute Bhutto's myth. He was brought parralel to Benazir as national leader while he was the Chief Minister. Later, he was made President of IJI, the brain child of former ISI chief, Gen. Hameed Gul.

First crack between Sharif and establishment came when he did not back ohis mentor Gen. Gul, as army chief. 

However, credit goes to Sharif, that he turned PML-N, a traditionally pro-establishment party into a political party and during nine years of Gen. Musharraf resisted the establishment pressure.

Being a politician from Punjab, luck also favours him, time and again. But, experience and anti-establishment stance during Musharraf's era also brought him and Benazir close to an extent that they signed historic, 'Charter of Democracy,' in 2006.

Sharif was also lucky that in 1993 the Supreme Court restored his government, which was dismissed on corruption charges, but, in 1990 and 1996, it did not restore PPP government, sacked on the same charges. However, he remained unlucky that in 2001, SC in Zafar Ali Shah's case gave legitimacy to Musharraf's coup.

Mian Sahib practically went unchallenged particularly in Punjab, before the rise of man from Mianwali, Imran Khan. It took him 20 years to get recognition as a national leader and that too from Punjab, despite having a huge Pashtoon following. 

How far has Imran Khan led PTI been able to cause a dent in the strong constituency of the powerful Sharifs, depends on the outcome of the Panama Case, but some senior PML-N leaders believe that even if decision goes against them, the party will sweep the polls.

" In 2008, elections when Mian Sahib was disqualified we fought and won Punjab on Mian Sahib's photograph. I am sure we will win the legal battle but are ready to accept any decision of the Supreme Court, and rest assured PML-N, would not lose Punjab,' a senior PML(N) leader told this writer, on condition of anonymity. 

National politics has now completely switched to Punjab, particularly after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in 2007 PPP could not regain Punjab. Infact in 2013, it completely lost the province in a most humiliating manner.

Thus, in a way rise of Imran Khan in 2011, is considered by many political pundits as good omen for Pakistan, for different reasons. In the absence of Benazir, the country needed an alternate political leader and ideally, someone from Punjab.

Imran had grabbed the political opportunity and exploited PPP's bad governance and Sharif's corruption as issues. Imran's rise came as a result of continuity of democracy and if it continues it may also break the strong biradri system.

 —The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang. He tweets @MazharAbbasGEO