All eyes on Sindh

Asif Ali Zardari, former president and co-chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, is expected to end his self-imposed exile and return to Pakistan on Dec. 23. Zardari’s return, announced by his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, comes at a time of a changing political environment post Nov 29.

In the next few days, PPP is likely to shift political activities out of Sindh and into Punjab—where is it already pushing for a revival—and will launch a duo-strategy that mounts pressure on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

The younger Zardari has been quick to dispel any connections being drawn between his father's return and the change of guard at the Army headquarters. "The doctors have permitted him to travel," said the PPP chairman on Sunday, "Zardari’s presence means a lot at a time when the party is to begin a movement for the implementation of its four demands."

While Asif Ali Zardari has been out of the country since June 2015, he has not been completely out of the loop on party affairs. Once back, Zardari is likely to initiate key changes in Sindh, which could mean shaking up the order of the provincial government.  The abrupt sacking of the Inspector General Sindh A.D. Khawaja could be an indication of which way things may be headed.

The former president departed for Dubai shortly after he cautioned the military, without naming the then-Army chief Raheel Sharif, of overstepping its domain. The televised outburst was in reaction to the arrest of Zardari’s close confidants, including Dr. Asim Hussain, Manzoor Kaka and Nisar Morai after the military launched an operation in Karachi.

Interestingly, Zardari was out of the country when Dr, Asim Hussain was cuffed by Ranger personnel. Hussain was later declared 'Jet Black' for allegedly financing terror. Undoubtedly, the doctor would be the first person the PPP leader would be keen to meet on his landing.

During the time he was away, ties with the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz have also nosedived. PPP leaders has missed few opportunities to lambast the out-spoken Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan for approving the arrest of both Dr. Hussain and model Ayan Ali in a money laundering scandal. Nisar, not one to back down either, disclosed the existence of a confessional video of Dr. Hussain. The footage was leaked a few days later. Although it is still unclear by whom.

According to party insiders, Prime Minister Sharif was against some of the National Accountability Bureau’s actions, fearing that it would damage his relationship with Zardari. However, his independent-minded minister Nisar differed. He did little to restrain the Federal Investigating Agency, which went after PPP leaders. 

PPP's full-throated call for Nisar's dismal has been bolstered by a recently released report about the attack in Quetta, which killed 70, mostly lawyers and journalists. The report is a scathing review of Nisar’s performance and couldn’t have come at a better time for the PPP.

Zardari will be speaking at the ninth death anniversary of Benazir Bhutto, his wife and former prime minister. It could be from this platform that the PPP co-chairman will launch the much-belated campaign against the government that Bilawal has threatened of in the past. For which, starting next year, Zardari will be meeting with Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Ch. Shujaat Hussain, Asfandyar Wali, Dr. Farooq Sattar, and noted Sindhi politicians, to coalesce a united movement.  Whether Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf leader Imran Khan makes it to his list is anyone’s guess.  That said, a PPP-PTI alliance may seem less attractive for the PPP which intends to challenge both the PMLN and PTI in Punjab in 2018.

For the next elections, Zardari would aim for maximum seats in Sindh and some from Southern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa, in order to form a formidable opposing coalition. He has also caused major dent in PML(Functional) and is likely to win over Jatois as well.

One unpredictable element, Zardari's party may need to keep a look out for, would be the population census expected in March 2017, followed by delimitation. If the national seats double, the political scenario would be both interesting and challenging for all contesting parties.

Zardari’s return also comes at a time when the beleaguered Prime Minister is under attack from Imran Khan who has taken his family to court for holding off-shore accounts in Panama. If PPP also decides to jump in to pressurize the ruling government, Maulana Fazlur Rehman could likely play the arbitrator between Zardari and Sharif.  JUI (F) is in no mood to join the protest. Sources reveals that even the ANP intends to keep itself out from any street agitation, but may join an alliance. 

As for MQM, how the former president plays his cards with the Karachi-based party would be far more fascinating to watch. He would prefer to keep a distance from MQM London.

It is no secret that Asif Ali Zardari has suffered from several medical complications, one of which includes a recurring back problem. Yet in the last one year, he has been jetting between Dubai, London and the USA, while staying away from Pakistan. One wonders, why doctors had kept him from returning home and why the permission comes now?

               Sindh mey purani tabdeeli ha gahi.

—The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.