Let the games begin: Who will head the Senate?

As soon as the elections for the 52 seats of the Senate concluded, all mainstream political parties hastened their efforts to clutch the slot of house chairman.

The Pakistan Peoples Party has already rolled out two names as possible contenders - Sherry Rehman and Raza Rabbani. But then there is the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, that secured a lead in last week’s polls. By ensuring a win for the new entrant, Mushahid Hussain Syed, the PML-N wants to safeguard his way to the top, since he is a favourite of the hidden forces. However, it would be unwise to count out their own pick, Raja Zafar ul Haq.

Over to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf, a powerful shareholder now, with 12 seats in the upper house. In an uncharacteristically smart move, the PTI has contacted Anwar ul Haq Kakar, an ally of the hidden forces and also a very wise man. An offer was made to make him the nominee for chairman, should he join their ranks. With this offer, the competition is now split between three political parties, not two, as was previously thought.

Now, for who can actually win? Rabbani is preferred by all pro-democracy forces. Regardless of party lines, leaders from the PML-N, the PPP and even the Jamaat-e-Islami have a liking for his way of doing the job. Even Punjab’s Law Minister Rana Sanaullah has proclaimed Rabbani a favourite. But the hitch is that he could face opposition from within his own party. Also, Asif Ali Zaradri, the PPP co-chairman, wants a new candidate for the post. Since, Farooq Naek, Nayyar Hussain Bukhari and Rabbani have already been appointed to the position, one after the other. This could mean that it may be Sherry Rehman’s turn. Perhaps by appointing the first female head of the upper house, PPP hopes to make history.

But if the competition gets tough, Zardari would have to settle for Rabbani, to keep the doors of reconciliation open with the PML-N.

In the Noon camp, the tactics seem to be changing. Even when Syed was with the rival PML-Q, he was openly cheating on his party by engaging in a romance with Nawaz Sharif’s League. This became most apparent when he sided with the ruling party over the China Pakistan Economic Corridor controversies. Finally, right before the Senate went to vote he joined the PML-N. It thus became clear for all to see that the man, favoured by the establishment, can lead a path to appeasement. And if he wins the chairmanship, the right signals will be sent, which are that there is room for flexibility in the party’s warpath.

On the other hand, if Pervaiz Rasheed were to be elected instead, red lights could begin flashing.

The centrists, also known as the Shehbazis, insist that a neutral person like Raja Zafar ul Haq should be promoted. Now, the PML-N does have 33 senators, which is more than any other party, but until it decides on one name, there is no certainty that other parties will support their nomination.

Apart from the three major political parties, there are 15 independent senators and 16 from smaller political entities. These 31 Senators could play a decisive role. The independents from Balochistan have already made their condition clear – whoever agrees to make one of them chairman Senate, can have their votes.

If, embattled as it is, the PML-N manages to wrest the top slot away from the others, they will declare it as a sign of their impending success in the forthcoming general elections. If the PPP plants its nominee on the chair, the narrative will be that their revival is on course. And if the PTI somehow ends up with their own candidate as chairman, it will have finally, and formally, joined the big boys club.  

Suhail Warraich is a senior journalist and analyst

Note: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Geo News, The News or the Jang Group