When Sarfraz Ahmed steps out on the Dubai Cricket Stadium ground today to toss the coin with Indian cricket team captain Rohit Sharma, he will know that it is perhaps the first instance in over five years that the odds are in favour of the Pakistani team.
It is no secret that with the absence of Virat Kohli, their talismanic skipper and perhaps the best limited-overs batsman, the Indian team will not have the same swagger. Add to it, the recent loss in the ODI series against England left their middle-order exposed and confidence shaky.
On the other hand, the Pakistani team is brimming with quiet confidence under the leadership of Sarfraz and while they haven’t had a chance to face serious competition of late, their limited overs team has blanked Zimbabwe, West Indies, Sri Lanka in both ODIs and T20s, as well as won a triangular tournament in Zimbabwe, beating Australia in the final.
The last time Pakistan and India faced each other in a One Day match was last year in Champions Trophy final, when Pakistan convincingly beat their arch rivals by 158 runs.
However, the last time the two teams met in the United Arab Emirates was back in 2006, when they played in a two-match tournament where they shared the spoils, as the series ended 1-1.
In the next 12 years, though, India has easily emerged as the centre of gravity for cricketing world as well as the financial powerhouse, thanks to Indian Premier League, the world’s most lucrative domestic T20 cricket league.
The success of IPL has meant that Indian cricket team has only continued to grow and is now among the most successful cricket team across all three formats. Pakistan, on the other hand, is left as cricketing nomads since the terrorist attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in March 2009 and is forced to play its ‘home’ matches in United Arab Emirates.
The last year and a half has seen gradual improvement in Pakistan’s limited overs squad and under the management of Mickey Arthur, the results bear witness to this improvement.
Currently ranked 5th, three places below India, Pakistan is banking on their young guns Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali and Faheem Ashraf to provide the spark and fizz on field.
Fakhar Zaman at the top of batting order is in rampant form and struck his country’s first double century in an ODI match against Zimbabwe. Along with his opening partner Imam-ul-Haq, they managed four century partnerships in five games.
With Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik and skipper Sarfraz, Pakistan feels that they have enough depth and strength to either put up challenging totals or gun down any target they are faced with.
While Shikhar Dhawan and temporary captain Rohit Sharma provide solidity at the top and imposing starts, it is the middle order which can cause headaches in the Indian camp. They have Lokesh Rahul, Ambayti Raydu, Dinesh Karthik, Kedhar Jadhav all fighting to establish a place in the middle-order which is bookended by former captain MS Dhoni and supported by firebrand all-rounder, Hardik Pandya.
Since 2016, in 51 matches, the top three of India including Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli, they have made nearly 65 per cent of the total runs scored by India in ODI cricket. Pakistan's top three are second best on this metric, with 54 per cent. For all the hype associated with Pakistan India matches, the last five ODI matches between these two have shown pretty lopsided competitions. India has won three of these, all of them comprehensively.
Pakistan, as mentioned earlier, smoked India in the Champions Trophy final last year with a massive margin but the only close match between these two in last five years came in the 2014 edition of Asia Cup in Dhaka, when Pakistan’s Shahid Afridi smacked Indian spinner Ashwin for a six in last over to record a famous win with just one wicket remaining.
This Asia Cup hasn't seen a big number of audiences so far but the organisers are hoping that this will change today.
The format of the tournament also ensures that the two teams will meet again on September 23 in ‘Super Four’ round, and if they make it to the final on Sep. 28, it will be the third time they will face each other within ten days.
While Pakistan has a clear advantage of knowing conditions in the UAE grounds far better than their Indian counterparts, it will be a folly on part of Sarfraz and Mickey Arthur to be complacent. After all, this Indian team did not become the 2nd best team in the world on back of just one batsman.
Abbas is based in Madrid and contributes on politics, media, culture, history and sports.