What’s at stake in the US mid-term elections?

Today, the American people will vote to decide the fate of 435 seats of the House of Representatives, 35 seats of the 100-member Senate, governors in 36 states and many city mayors.

Similar to Pakistan’s national assembly, the American House of Representatives, aka the Congress, is the lower house, where laws are drafted. But unlike Pakistan, members in the house are elected for a period of two years, after which the seats are once again up for grabs. The American Senate elects its members for a period of six years. After every two years, one third of the Senate seats are vacated and elections held.

In the 2016 presidential polls, the Republican candidate Donald J. Trump won against the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton, surprising most of the world. His victory was built upon the slogan of making America ‘great again’ and in winning, he carved a deep line across the diverse nation.

At the moment, the the Republicans have a hold of 236 seats in the House, while the Democrats have 193, with six vacant seats. In the US Senate, there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.

For the Democrats to secure a majority, it needs to pick up 24 seats in the lower house, as 218 seats are needed for a majority, and two in the upper house, which is no small accomplishment. But it’s chances are looking good. The Trump administration’s approval ratings are slumping. For many political wonks, these mid-terms will be a referendum on his policies.

If the Democrats do reclaim the Congress, it would be a great upset for the ruling party as it could hamper its ability to pass legislation. A Democrat victory would also mean that the heads of the powerful house committees would change hands.

However, the winning a majority in the Senate will be an uphill task. Even though two seats are needed, if the Democrats are looking to impeach the president they will still need the support of the Republicans in the upper house.

How many seats are needed for a majority?

· 51 seats or more are needed to control the Senate

· 218 seats for a majority in the House

Meanwhile, these elections hold special meaning for Muslim Americans. For the first time, two Muslim women are on the verge of getting elected to the Congress.

Post 9/11 and post Trump’s rhetoric against Muslims, a large number of the community is taking part in these polls. As many as 90 American Muslims filed to run for office this year. After the primaries 50 are still in the race for state and federal offices. The diverse list included not just Muslim men but women too. In fact, these polls are witnessing the most diverse list of contestants in the history of the United States. These 411 women, men and L.G.B.T candidates are running for the House, Senate and governorship.

According to a New York Times analysis, 58 per cent of the contestants are white men, which is the lowest percentage in the last four elections, while 216 are African Americans, Native Americans and Asian Americans. Separately, 26 contestants identify themselves as LGBT.

Also, Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate, is vying to become the first black women elected as governor in the state of Georgia. She is against Brian Kemp, the Georgia secretary of state and the Republican nominee.

Interestingly, in the mid-terms polls there is expected to be a surge in the number of young voters. These young men and women, under the age of 30, are likely to favour the Democrats due to their liberal take on political and social issues. A survey by the a Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that 45 per cent of the young voters will probably stamp a ballot for the Democrats, while 25 per cent will for the Republicans.

If Trump manages to carry the Republicans past the finish line, he might be able to place a permanent ban on the entry of Muslims from seven countries, as he had tried to do when he was elected. So far, he has been unsuccessful in building a wall between Mexico and America, and he has also failed in convincing NATO allies to compensate America for its expenditure. Even the Obama Care remains in place, despite attempts to roll it back.

In short, if the Republicans are defeated today, then, in time either Trump will change or America itself will change.