Can Imran Khan and his government survive?

As the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-led (PTI) government completed its first 100 days in office, the same question is being asked again and again. Will the government last?

My answer is: Yes, it will.

Everyone is on the same page. The judiciary, the media and even the political rivals want the ruling party to complete its five-year term. After all, Prime Minister Imran Khan must be given a chance to bring about the change he promised. Khan secured the mandate so he should be given a free hand.

But despite the prayers and well wishes, the frequent appointments, transfers and resignations in the first three months, has cast aspersions on the PTI’s performance. There is a lack of a concrete plan on economic and social issues.

The prime minister may be clear on what he wants, but his team is inexperienced and weak. It won’t be wrong then to predict that if governance and the economy are not improved in the coming days, no one but the PTI will be to blame for its resulting political fallout.

Khan’s administration will face its first major roadblock in June 2019, when the new government will present a federal budget in the parliament. Now, when budgets are tabled, parliamentarians have a habit of suddenly becoming disgruntled. Every institution wants a bigger slice of the pie, which is why the month of June and July are uneasy for all incoming governments.

Even if the PTI makes it, unscratched, through the budget storm, its best days will be behind it. From there on, the government will be weakened, struggling and lumbering towards the finish line.

As I write this Op-Ed, I mutter a small prayer under my breath.

I sincerely hope that Imran Khan is able to realize his dream of a better Pakistan. That said, I am aware that wishes and facts are seldom on the same path. Facts are usually confronted with reality and wishes, well, wishes are often based on emotions.

I would recommend that we hold off on our criticisms, but it can also not be denied that the provincial and federal government do not seem to have a clear policy moving forward. Take Asad Umar for example. In just a 100 days, the minister of finance took a major U-turn on privatising Pakistan’s steel mills and the state-owned airline. Instead of giving explanations, he lashed out at anyone who pointed out the about-face.

Then, there is the Qureshi from Multan. He is honest and trustworthy, no doubt. But, he can not seem to transcend from his self-centeredness. As for the Chaudhry from Jhelum, he is young and, as his speeches have shown, very aggressive.

Now the business of the government and its day-to-day affairs are run by the bureaucracy. Khan is surrounded by civil servants and an over-extended team of advisors and special assistants. This may be a recipe for disaster. As on every issue, there seem to be disagreements, mistrusts and infighting.

Unfortunately, like former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, Khan tends to pay heed to every whisper he hears. Bhutto would do the same. She would listen to every complaint but at the end of the day, she kept her feelings to herself. Imran Khan, on the other hand, is very vocal about his true feelings. Whatever he hears, he conveys it directly to his ministers, demoralizing them in the process. Maybe running the government through WhatsApp is not the best idea?

Over to Punjab, the land of the five rivers, currently being ruled by five kings, according to the grapevine. In the past few weeks, many district and superintendent police officers have been transferred willy-nilly. This isn’t new though. Former rulers have also had to face lobbies, who would try to pull the government in different directions. But unlike the past, chief ministers of Punjab, Shehbaz Sharif, Manzoor Watto and Sardar Muhammad Arif Nakai centralized their governments and held most of the power. The new chief minister is weak. If this internal struggle for power isn’t resolved, and soon, the Punjab government will have a bleak chance of success.

Back to the centre, where soon after assuming office, the PTI realized that the most pressing issue was the looming economic crisis. For the remedy of which, the prime minister visited China, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yet, neither the stock market has stabilised in 100 days, nor has inflation and the dollar exchange rate been brought under control.

But Khan is fortunate. The law, in his tenure, has decided to act against those who want to shut down the cities through protests. His rival, Shehbaz Sharif is in the custody of the anti-corruption body. Maryam Nawaz Sharif and her father have chosen to remain silent. And Asif Ali Zardari can not finalize an action plan. Zardari, who wants to protect his government in Sindh, is also cognizant of the cases of fraud piling up against him. So, he is extending an olive branch to both the government and the opposition for now. The PTI should capitalize on these good fortunes. An inactive opposition should mean an active government. A government that works overtime to push its agenda on health and education. But perhaps, inexperience is holding it back.

It should be important for the PTI to amend the local government laws, as it promised, and hold elections. Both the Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Pakistan Peoples Party are strong in their respective provinces and have deep roots due to previous local body polls. If the PTI continues to put this off, for another year, it would have squandered an opportunity to strengthen its party’s network at the local level.

Many have their hopes pinned on Imran Khan. The expats and overseas Pakistanis expect the prime minister to perform miracles. They firmly believe that he can turn this country into one that rivals western states. The salaried middle class also await Khan to deliver a Pakistan where laws, justice and merit are supreme. For which, Pakistan needs a robust economy. Slogans of corruptions are great for optics, but without fixing the economic crisis, Khan runs the risk of alienating his most ardent followers. Who may then become silent, and finally detach themselves from the entire political process.

I hope and pray that this never happens.

Note: The views expressed in the article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Geo News or the Jang Group.