Senate polls 2021: The two scenarios likely to play out in the Upper House

Nearly half of the Senate, the Upper House of the Pakistani parliament, is up for grabs on March 3.

The Senate currently has a total of 100 members, after the four seats that were earlier allotted to the tribal belt were merged into the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly. 

Of these 100 seats, 48 will be up for grabs next month, with the assemblies electing a Senator to each of those seats for a term of six-years.

In the last polls held in early 2018, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) had dominated the house thanks to its strong position in the assemblies. This time, however, by the same virtue, the ruling-Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is poised to make big gains.

So, what could the Senate look like post-March?

Geo’s political cell has mapped out two likely scenarios which could emerge after polling day. In both scenarios, the ruling party and its alliance secure the majority in the House, but a slim one in comparison to the opposition parties.

Here's, a look at the current position of each party in the provincial assemblies: