Opinion polls show PML-N ahead of PTI in NA-75 Daska

• Surveys carried out by Gallup Pakistan, IPSOS and Plus Consultants with a sample size of 1,000 voters on NA-75 Daska polls.
• All three surveys show a reduction in PML-N’s vote bank in comparison with last two elections.
• All three polls found a large chunk of voters expressing preference to cast their vote in Daska by-polls.

KARACHI: Three opinion polls of voters in Daska NA-75 have predicted that the majority is likely to vote for the PML-N but the PTI will give the Shehbaz Sharif party a tough time in the April 10 by-polls.

The surveys were carried out by Gallup Pakistan, IPSOS and Plus Consultants with a sample size of 1,000 voters.

The Gallup survey showed that 36% of PML-N voters and 32% of PTI supporters were likely to vote for their respective parties.

The survey also showed that close to 4% of voters indicated that they may vote for the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan. However, 18% of voters are yet to decide who they will vote for and 3% outright refused to take part in the process.

Read more: ECP declares NA-75 polling void, orders fresh elections in entire constituency

The IPSOS opinion poll showed that 45% of the voters have shown their inclination to vote for the PML-N, while 27% said they would back the PTI candidate, 5% said they would vote for the Tehreek-e-Labbaik. Interestingly, just like Gallup, 18% of IPOSOS voters said they were indecisive and 4% decided not to take part in the process at all.

According to the Pulse Consultants, 52% pollsters expressed their preference for PML-N while 40% pledged their support to the PTI.

The poll also showed that 2% of the voters said that they would cast their vote for the Tehreek-e-Labbaik, and 1% expressed their preference for PPP and 4% were indecisive about whom to support in the Daska by-polls, while 4% refused to vote for any political party.

Regarding the difference observed between the PTI and PML-N supporters in all the three opinion polls, the Gallup Survey found the difference to be 4%, while IPSOS found an 18% difference and Pulse Consultants found the divide to be 12%.

Read more: PTI challenges ECP's re-polling decision on NA-75 by-election in Supreme Court

PML-N's vote bank shrinking

All the three companies said that the polls showed a reduction in the PML-N’s vote bank compared to the last two elections. They also noted that the PTI had made significant gains and seen an increase in its vote base.

According to Gallup Pakistan Survey, in 2018 the 49% of PML-N supporters vouched to back their party, PTI was at 34%, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan at 4%.

During the Feb 19 Daska by-polls, 42% expressed their intention to vote for the PML-N and an equal 42% expressed a preference for PTI, while 7% expressed their liking for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan.

According to IPSOS Survey, ahead of the 2018 general election, 55% pledged their support for the PML-N candidate, 32% expressed a desire to cast vote for PTI, 5% for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and 2% cited their support for independents and 1% thought they would cast a ballot for PPP.

However, during the Feb 19 Daska by-polls, 51% said that they voted for the PML-N, while 39% shared that their vote went to the PTI, 6% said they voted for Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and another 6% voted for the independents.

Read more: SC dismisses PTI request to suspend ECP order on re-election in NA-75 Daska

On the other hand, Pulse Consultants found an expansion in the PML-N vote preference. In 2018, the PML-N vote preference was found to be 52%, while 44% expressed the intention to support PTI, TLP managed to get avowals of 3%.

On the Feb 19 Daska by-polls, 54% said they voted for the PML-N candidate, 41% for PTI and 3% favoured TLP and 1% were found to prefer the PPP candidate.

Voter's readiness

All three survey companies found a large chunk of voters expressing a preference to cast their vote in the Daska by-polls. Gallup found 82% voter readiness, IPSOS found 84% and Pulse Consultants found 96% of voters prepared to take part in the by-election.

In the upcoming Daska by-election, the Pulse Consultants found 88% ready to take part in the election, 8% were found indecisive and 4% refused to take part in the election process.