Who was named favourite leader by NA-249 voters ahead of the April 29 by-poll?

Ahead of the April 29 by-elections, Prime Minister Imran Khan has been named by voters of Karachi’s NA-249 constituency as their favourite political leader, maintaining an edge over PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif.

In two out of three polls conducted, PM Imran Khan was named as the favourite, while in the third, Nawaz Sharif was declared the most popular.

Ipsos, Pulse Consultant, and Gallup Pakistan released survey findings based on the opinion of 1,200 to 1,400 registered voters of the constituency.

All three surveys took place between April 10 and April 20, 2021.

Ipsos survey

In the survey carried out by Ipsos, PM Imran Khan was the most popular leader in the constituency with 20% of the respondents choosing him.

Of the remaining, 16% said Nawaz Sharif, 16% said Mustafa Kamal, 5% said Khadim Hussain Rizvi, 4% said Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, 4% said Maryam Nawaz Sharif, 3% said Maulana Fazlur Rehman, 3% said Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, 1% said Sirajul Haq, 1% said Asif Ali Zardari, 1% said Shahbaz Sharif, and 1% said Saad Hussain Rizvi is their preferred choice.

Interestingly, 18% said that none of the above-mentioned leaders is their favourite.

Pulse Consultant survey

In the poll by Pulse Consultant, on the question of preferred leader answered by constituency voters, 18% said that they prefer Prime Minister Imran Khan, after which 16% declared Pak Sarzameen Party leader Mustafa Kamal as their favorite, 10% chose Nawaz Sharif, 7% said Khadim Hussain Rizvi, 6% said Benazir Bhutto, 5% said Farooq Sattar, 4% said Pervez Musharraf, 3% said Maryam Nawaz and 2% said Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui is their favourite.

Gallup Pakistan survey

In contrast to the two polls, in a Gallup Pakistan poll, 20% of voters in the constituency favoured PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif.

Among the others, 19% declared PM Imran Khan as their favorite, 8% said PPP chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, 5% said Pervez Musharraf, 3% said Mustafa Kamal, 3% said Fazlur Rehman, 2% said Maryam Nawaz, 1% said Shahbaz Sharif, 1% said Asif Ali Zardari, 1% said Sirajul Haq, and 1% said Benazir Bhutto was their favorite leader.

The remaining 22% said no leader among those mentioned qualifies as their favourite.

Favourite political party

Not only did PM Imran Khan get elected by respondents of two out of three surveys as their favourite political leader, PTI was chosen as the preferred political party.

Of the respondents to the Ipsos Pakistan survey, 15% indicated PTI as their first choice, whereas 19% of the those responding to the Pulse Consultant survey chose PTI as their preferred party.

Among respondents to the Gallup Pakistan survey however, 19% chose PML-N as their party of choice.

All three survey companies have predicted a close competition, with the role of undecided voters as an important aspect to factor in. And with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan declared a banned outfit, the voter base will likely see a mass exodus of voters, as no candidate can contest under the TLP banner.

Favourite political party in 2018 elections

A look at the findings from the surveys by Ipsos and Gallup Pakistan, which also asked respondents to indicate which party they voted for in the 2018 elections, reveals that the PTI was the favourite back then as well.

A majority of the Gallup Pakistan respondents — 27% — said that they voted for PTI, followed by 23% saying they voted for PML-N, 18% saying they chose MQM-P at the time, 10% saying they cast the ballot in favour of PPP and 5% saying they voted for the now banned TLP.

On the other hand, respondents to the Ipsos survey demonstrated an even stronger liking for the PTI, with 31% saying they voted for the party.

The remaining 19% voted for PML-N, 18% for MQM-P, 7% for the now proscribed TLP and 5% for the PPP.