One step forward abroad, two steps back at home

In the midst of what is marketed to be a generational political crisis – where some commentators have predicted a fall of government virtually every weekend since August 2018 – the quantum and quality of geo-economic opportunity available to the people of this country seems to somehow magically continue to grow. Context is king, and the conditions under which Pakistan’s regional and global position seem to be strengthening merit deep reflection.

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Imran Khan was in Beijing, lapping up Chinese warmth in the icy environs of the 2022 Winter Olympics. This week, PM Khan will visit Moscow to cap nearly a decade and a half of assiduous work by Pakistani bureaucrats, generals and politicians to build a more robust relationship with the Kremlin.

Advances in Pakistan-Russia relations have steadily produced a series of milestones, almost all of which have stayed relatively below radar in a country that got accustomed, over two decades, to the weekly humiliation of being a non-Nato ally of the United States in Afghanistan. But concerns about whether Pakistan is drifting away from the West and into the China-Russia orbit are overblown.

Pakistan’s economy continues to require the endorsement of Washington Consensus institutions, continues to require the American and European Union markets for its exports, continues to require US private equity and venture capital investments into its startup ecosystem, and most of all, will forever continue to substantially engage millions of Americans, Brits, Aussies, Canadians, Kiwis and others of Pakistani origin – remittances, cultural capital and travel and tourism from these foreigners of Pakistani origin alone is enough to fuel engagement for at least a generation.

The West too, is not short of reasons to continue to lean on Pakistan – from counterterrorism, to a gateway to Central Asia, to its own substantial centre of gravity as a market of young consumers, and a substantive (and proven) geopolitical partner. In short, the funeral pyre of Pakistan’s engagement with the West is a little premature. Pakistan’s relationship with the West is robust, and though it will remain rocky – often subject to factors with little to do with what makes the relationship rich and varied – it will endure.

Both the enduring relationships Pakistan has with Western powers and the growing ties it has with China and Russia are a product of the vitality and importance of Pakistan, as it exists today. This is and should be jarring – for the die-hard Insafis that believe PM Khan is fighting a generational battle against entrenched Pakistani elites, as well as for PM Khan’s legions of critics, on the right, in the centre and on the left, that believe him to be a pawn for the very elites (those that have all the money and all the power) he claims to be fighting. You see, no matter which of these two groups you speak to, you come away with a sense of profound anxiety: in the world according to both, Pakistan is a hot mess: “Why would any country want to do business with Pakistan?” they both ask.

Of course, the simplistic assumption behind this incredulity is that Pakistan is an outlier in global politics. The truth is a little more complex. Pakistan is a crossroads nation, constantly battling internal contradictions, and external actors – keen to maintain economic and political power in the country. On many metrics, there is no escaping the dysfunction that plagues the country, but on almost all the same metrics, the rest of the world is in rapid meltdown mode.

Watching the truckers’ dharna in Ottawa, Canada was strangely familiar. A large array of goons that rode into a capital city, paralysed political and economic discourse, and didn’t quite have any real clear agenda, other than disruption and contempt for the leadership elected to govern the country. Where have Pakistanis watched this film noire before? Remember Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri’s August 14, 2014 dharna?

In a world that is melting down, neither Joe Biden, nor Vladimir Putin, nor Xi Jinping care a lot about the fidelity and consistency of their work: they care about their narrow interests. How can they and their countries benefit from international arrangements? What they need to do, and who they need to befriend is borne not of principle, but of need and convenience. It so happens that all three have enough to gain in engaging with Pakistan, and too much to lose by alienating it. And so the wheels turn.

Pakistan itself is a lot more than the sum of quackery, fake news and fake history that the country’s power brokers peddle. It is one of the largest young populations on the planet, with demonstrable talent, and an appetite for material consumption that will make billionaires of not one, but many Malik Riaz level entrepreneurs, over the next three decades – with none of the baggage that he carries. The question for Pakistani elites isn’t why Russia is warming up now, or why China is in deep with Pakistan, or why even amidst all this, the number one source of Covid-19 vaccines in Pakistan is the United States. The question is why not. Why wouldn’t global powers want to ensure that they have deep ties with Pakistan? Why wouldn’t global powers want to enjoy good public favourability and approval in a country that will have a population of over 350 million by the time it turns one hundred years old?

There is only one answer to these questions. And it is the same answer, and it has been tested, over and over and over again. The only reason Pakistan is ever at risk of losing the ability to engage with the rest of the world is internal coherence, stability and security. As long as the Pakistani elite are prevented from turning Pakistan into a scene from an Avengers film, in which all hell breaks loose and citizens turn on each other and the state, the vitality of Pakistan as an international partner will endure. But the Pakistani elite’s efforts to extract that next subsidy, that next favour, that next little bit of profit is proving to be a very heady challenge for the country.

Among the newest battlefields is Pakistani free speech. This is not a country where blasphemy is a real issue. But it is a country where the ability of the powerless and the weak to curse at the elite is. The powerless and the weak are not left with much, especially not after another episode of sustained inflation. The least this country can afford them is the capacity to use social media to express their hatred for their lot and their fate, and for having to endure the excesses of this elite.

It is said that the new amendments to the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) 2016 are necessitated by a wave of scandalous, offensive and targeted hate speech and fake news. As a frequent target for social media memes and curse words, and as someone whose integrity, faith and patriotism are constantly questioned on social media, I would be delighted with the ability to put the fear of God into the trolls that go after me. But I do wonder where these trolls are supposed to go. Maybe the easily offended people trying to criminalise trolling whilst holding unlimited unaccountable power in this country should also wonder the same thing.

Pakistan’s elite are profane, not sacred. Targeted social media abuse is not a real problem. Water scarcity, low quality schools, subsidies for the rich and India-sponsored terrorism are real problems. China, Russia, and the US are not going to be scared off by these problems. But they may eventually scoff at having to contend with a Pakistani elite so fragile that it dedicates its substantial resources – not to solve real problems but to hide behind draconian new laws meant to stifle public discourse.

The geo-economic opportunity available to the people of this country will continue to grow; the only question is to what extent it will be stifled by the Pakistani elites’ insatiable appetite to self-sabotage. As usual, as Pakistan takes one step forward abroad, it takes two steps back at home.

The writer is an analyst and commentator.

Originally published in The News