Outcome of by-polls in Punjab

The by-elections scheduled to be held in 20 constituencies throughout Punjab are likely to have a monumental effect on both the current political situation in the country and what may follow it.

For the incumbent illegal and unconstitutional government in Punjab, a victory is essential to stay in power and, for the PTI, it is a chance to topple not just the provincial edifice, but also make inroads into getting the better of the government in Islamabad. Even more daunting in the shape things would take in case the process of elections is tampered with as is being widely speculated.

The one common factor in the method pursued for inducting the governments at the centre and in Punjab was the trading of human conscience. Twenty votes by the PTI turncoats were polled to facilitate the making of an illegal and unconstitutional government in the province. When the Supreme Court judged that such votes, if and when cast, should be disregarded and perpetrators unseated from the assembly, the government lost its artificial majority which, constitutionally, should have led to its ouster. But, because of the LHC intervention and other supportive factors, it was provided a lease of life leading to the holding of by-elections.

It is obvious that not only does the future of the provincial government in Punjab depend on ensuring a victory, but the entire unconstitutional edifice imposed on the country led by a bunch of established crooks, convicts, criminals and absconders will come crumbling down if the same is not secured. The importance of these elections can, therefore, be clearly gauged as the future of the entire foreign-inspired concoction rests on ensuring victory in the by-polls.

An operation to capture the elections is already underway in the province which encompasses the use of all available instruments of state machinery to pressurise PTI voters, to have cases registered against them and even arrest them. It also includes incentivizing voters with lucrative offers to dissuade them from supporting the party. The voters’ lists of PTI members and supporters have been grossly tampered with and their votes have been shifted to places which are far removed from the addresses provided in their CNICs by a brazenly partisan ECP. This is tantamount to gross manipulation of the administrative machinery which is under the command of the federal and provincial governments.

Going by the surging crowds which have converged to all rallies addressed by PTI Chairman Imran Khan wherever he has gone in the province, and seeing the lurking danger of a potential loss, some federal and provincial ministers of PML-N have resigned their positions in an attempt to boost the election campaign. This speaks of the jitters that the incumbent provincial government is suffering from in its bid to hold on to a wobbly power base using illegal and unconstitutional means at its disposal. This accentuates the fear regarding the post-election eventualities if a victory is carved out by manipulating the state machinery which the administration appears geared to doing.

While a landslide victory for the PTI is being forecast by all independent observers, an extremely grim picture is being painted if the same is stolen from the party through use of unfair means and methods. What are the potential options if such a situation were to occur and how can anger be contained which would naturally emerge given not only the huge number of people, but the indomitable passion witnessed at all PTI rallies held in connection with the election campaign? Will this be stopped from overflowing into violence? Once it surges forth, will even the party leadership be able to hold the charge back? Therein resides a real danger of Pakistan plunging into a spate of irretrievable violence which may spread across the entire country.

So the government (illegally) in charge in the province and its promoters elsewhere must heed the situation with utmost care before they give in to their desperation to win the by-elections no matter what may be its cost and consequences. A hollow victory in these elections won through the use of illegal, unfair and unconstitutional means could spell chaos in the country. But is the desperation so intense that the prospect of such an eventuality be either not evaluated at all, or it be rubbished?

Nothing is beyond reckoning at this stage. This is primarily because of the dire need to stay in power by the existing concoction till the primary objectives of their incumbency have been met: that of having themselves exonerated from cases they have either been convicted in, or they can potentially be indicted for. While the process to free themselves from these cases has already been initiated by the cabal of convicts, criminals and absconders who have been fraudulently placed in seats of power, it may still require some time to finish the job. That is why it is vital for them to stay on in there – which is exactly why using unconstitutional methods and even running the risk of plunging the country into violence may be overlooked to meet their sinister and self-serving agenda.

But these perpetrators have to be stopped not by unleashing violence, but by the power of the vote and the passion of the voter. These ingredients are witnessed aplenty wherever Khan has gone on this most recent whirlwind tour regarding the by-elections. The venues have been rendered small for the numbers pouring in to listen to the voice of conviction which has not only freed them from the demons of fear, but it has also broken their silence.

This voice is now resonating across divisions and divides uniting people in the common cause of winning back freedom for their country and restoring their self-esteem. The power of this voice is rising to a crescendo with each day leading up to the elections. It is earnestly hoped that the illegal and unconstitutional incumbents and their facilitators are abreast of the charged environment that prevails throughout the country. Even the littlest spark can ignite this into an inferno.

This can be avoided only if this voice of reason and conviction is not ignored, and the due process of elections is not tampered with. A real-time danger for the onset of chaos and violence looms in the event of a stolen ballot. Khan has turned out to be an incredibly more formidable challenge than the schemers would have imagined in their evaluation. The only way to move into a peaceful future is to ensure an election process which is free from intervention.

If, however, an attempt is made to impose an artificial writ through a stolen ballot, it would inevitably lead to the spark turning into an inferno with a potentially catastrophic outcome.

Viva la Revolution!

The writer is a political and security strategist and the founder of the Regional Peace Institute in Islamabad. He tweets @RaoofHasan