Dissecting each of the 20 constituencies: How the PTI trounced the PML-N

While the voter turnout was lower than in the 2018 by-election, the PTI saw an upsurge in their electorate in almost all of the 20 provincial constituencies, which went to poll on July 17.

In the closely-watched contest, the PTI outperformed the PML-N in 15 out of 20 constituencies, leaving the PML-N with only four wins.

What went wrong with the ruling PML-N? A lot.

In at least four constituencies, not awarding the ticket to the PML-N's own candidates from 2018 led to its vote bank being split. In other constituencies, the PML-N could not appeal to the new voters — youngsters and women. 

While in a few, internal rivalries cost it the election, as PML-N's local leadership was not comfortable supporting candidates backed by businessman Jahangir Tareen, for fear that it would make the Tareen group stronger.

These factors and many more awarded the PML-N’s rival, the PTI, a stunning victory.

The PTI also put up a strong, electrifying election campaign, which was personally led by the PTI chairman and former prime minister Imran Khan. His party had a clear narrative and leadership, which the PML-N lacked.

Here is a constituency-wise analysis of what happened on election day:

PP-7 Rawalpindi

Winner: PML-N

Turnout: The turnout was 5% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: The PML-N’s Raja Sagheer snatched PP-7 from the PTI by a slim electoral margin of victory of only 49 votes.

The winning candidate, Raja Sagheer, had also secured this constituency in 2018, by 44,363 votes, but at that time he was contesting as an independent candidate. Whereas the PML-N candidate in 2018 received 42,000 votes and was polled second. The PTI, which came third in 2018, had raked in 40,000 votes.

On July 17, although the PTI lost to Sagheer, it gained 20,000 votes. While the PML-N and Sagheer combined lost 20,000 votes.

Assessment: It appears that the complete vote bank of the PML-N did not transfer to Raja Sagheer.

PP-83 Khushab

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 9% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In this constituency, PTI came in fifth in the 2018 election, and received less than 9,000 votes. Ghulam Rasool Sangha, who won as an independent candidate in 2018, got 69,036 votes, while the PML-N candidate got 47,764 votes.

On July 17, PTI’s candidate Hasan Aslam Malik, who is the brother of a PTI MNA from Khushab, pulled in upward of 50,000 votes. While the PML-N polled only 35,395 votes.

Assessment: It seems that the vote bank of the PML-N was split in this constituency, as Sangha was the PML-N’s official candidate, but another PML-N loyalist, Muhammad Asif Bha, decided to run independently after he was refused a ticker by the party. Bha polled second on July 17, beating the PML-N candidate and getting 43,586 votes. If it were not for the rift in PML-N some of Bha’s vote could have gone to the PML-N candidate.

Meanwhile, the vote bank of the PTI registered a significant jump from 2018. But it must be noted that in 2018, the PTI candidate from this constituency was relatively unknown.

PP-90 Bhakkar

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 1% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In Bhakkar, PTI’s Irfanullah Niazi defeated Saeed Akbar Nawani by bagging over 77,000 votes. PML-N's Nawani secured 66,513. This is the first time Nawani has been defeated by this constituency in several years.

Irfanullah Niazi, who was the PML-N’s district general secretary till June, was hopeful for a ticket from the PML-N but was refused. He then left and contested from the PTI platform.

In 2018, Niazi was PML-N’s candidate for this constituency. He lost to Nawani, who was contesting independently. Back then Nawani won by securing 59,490 votes while Niazi got 45,000 votes. The PTI candidate at the time only received 13,085 votes.

Assessment: On July 17, Nawani seemed to have retained his own vote bank, but he could not get the PML-N voters to vote for him. Some of PML-N’s vote bank might also have gone to Niazi, who was previously with the party.

It is important to also note that the Niazi family has its own vote bank in the constituency as well.

PP-97 Faisalabad

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 6% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In Faisalabad, the PTI won the constituency and not only that, its vote bank saw a rise of 21% from 2018.

But Muhammad Ajmal’s vote bank has remained intact, in fact he gained around 12,000 more votes this time with the PMLN’s support.

In 2018, the PML-N stood third in PP-97 with only 35,298 votes, while Ajmal, who at the time was contesting independently, emerged victorious with 42,273 votes.

Assessment: It seems the PML-N voters, who were upset with their party for awarding the ticket to Ajmal, did not vote for him either.

PP-125 Jhang

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 5% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: PTI gained over 40,000 votes on July 17 in this constituency and snatched it for itself.

It must be noted that in 2018, the PML-N did not field any candidate from PP-125. While the independent, Faisal Hayat Jabboana, beat PTI’s, Muhammad Azam. Back then, Jabboana got 51,050 votes and Azam received 38,699 votes.

Assessment: In by-election, Jabboana’s vote bank remained intact, but PTI’s has increased, with its candidate securing 82,312 votes.

There was also reportedly resentment against Jabboana for constantly switching political parties.

PP 127 Jhang

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 12% less compared to the 2018 general polls.

On the day: PTI’s Muhammad Nawaz secured 44,295 more votes compared to 2018. In the 2018 general polls, Nawaz was trounced by the independent Mehar Muhammad Aslam.

This time Aslam was the PML-N’s candidate and he raked in over 20,000 more votes than in 2018 but not enough to counter the PTI.

Assessment: The PML-N does not have its own vote bank in this constituency, as in 2018 it only got 1,956 votes. Thus the true competition was between Nawaz and Aslam.

This constituency has also had 60,000 new registered voters since 2018.

PP-140 Sheikhupura

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 14% less compared to the 2018 general polls.

On the day: On July 17, the PTI’s vote bank increased by 11,000 in PP-140, but the PML-N also saw a hike in its vote bank by 6,000 votes.

Assessment: Almost 41,000 new voters have registered in this constituency since 2018. Ground reports suggest that the younger voters were inclined to vote for the PTI.

Lahore

Turnout: The voter turnout in all four constituencies of Lahore has been around 35% -39% which is much below the 2018 turnout, when it was above 50%.

Overall assessment: The four constituencies of Lahore have seen little change from 2018 in terms of the number of ballots cast for each party.

PP- 158 Lahore

Winner: PTI

On the day: Even though the PTI won this constituency, it got 14,856 less votes compared to 2018, when PTI’s Aleem Khan won from here. While the PML-N received 13,323 less votes compared to 2018.

Assessment: The electoral margin of defeat between the two rival parties remains almost the same as that in 2018.

PP-167 Lahore

Winner: PTI

On the day: PTI bagged 40,680 votes in 2018 and 40,511 votes in 2022. Their vote bank remains largely the same in the by-polls. However, the same cannot be said of the PML-N which received 12,000 less votes this time compared to 2018.

Assessment: It seems that fewer PML-N voters were pushed to vote, while PTI was able to galvanize its voters before the polls.

PP-168 Lahore

Winner: PML-N

On the day: In the 2018 general polls, PMLN’s Saad Rafique secured PP-168 with 34,119 votes while PTI’s Fiaz Bhatti got 14,950 votes. In the by-polls held later in 2018, Asad Khokhar snatched the constituency from the PTI platform with 17,571 votes. The PML-N candidate in the by-poll received over 16,000 votes.

Assessment: In the July by-election, almost 26,169 ballots were cast in PML-N’s favour, while the PTI has retained its vote share of around 15,000, despite the low voter turnout. It seems this is one constituency where the PML-N vote bank did transfer to Asad Khokhar.

PP-170 Lahore

Winner: PTI

On the day: In the by-election, the PTI’s vote bank has remained largely the same as that of 2018, but the PML-N has seen a dip in its voters by around 3,000.

PP-202 Sahiwal

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 3% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In 2018, Nauman Langrial secured 57,540 votes on a PTI ticket to defeat PMLN’s Shahid Munir, who secured 44,349 votes.

This time around PTI’s Major (Retd.) Ghulam Sarwar won by securing 62,298 votes, while PMLN got 59,161 votes.

Assessment: Both parties seemed to have retained their vote bank, but the PML-N could not cash in on the advantage of awarding the ticket to an electable, Langrial. The people of the constituency, reportedly, were also upset with Langrial for being inaccessible.

A big factor that went in favour of the PTI was women voters, who had shown up in large numbers with very small children at PTI chairman Imran Khan’s political rally in the constituency, despite the rain. Also, Sarwar being a Jatt received the baradari (clan) vote.

PP- 217 Multan

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 9% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In 2018, PTI’s Salman Naeem won the constituency by securing 35,300 votes, while PML-N stood third by getting around 21,625 votes. This time, Naeem was the PML-N candidate. While his vote bank increased to 40,425 in the by-polls, he still lost to PTI’s Zain Qureshi.

In PP-217, the PTI was able to hike up its vote bank by over 16,000 votes in July.

Assessment: While all the heavyweights in the constituency were supporting Naeem, therefore PML-N's top leadership and PPP’s leadership, the PML-N’s Waheed Arain and his family, who have been former candidates from the constituency, did not support Salman Naeem, as they saw his victory as an end to their politics with the PML-N in PP-217.

PP-224 Lodhran

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 6% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: Both political parties, the PML-N and PTI, received 8,000-9,000 more votes than in 2018, despite the low turnout.

Assessment: The rivalry between businessman Jahangir Khan Tareen and PML-N’s Abdul Rehman Kanju cost the PML-N candidate a win. The Kanju group did not support Zawar Hussain Warraich completely, as they believed that a victory by Warraich, who is close to Tareen, could lead to the Tareen group taking over the constituency.

The young voters also showed up in large numbers on polling day to vote.

PP- 228 Lodhran

Winner: Independent

Turnout: The turnout was 2% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: This is the only constituency that was won by an independent candidate in the July polls.

Rafiuddin Shah, a former PML-N MPA, was snubbed by the party when the ticket was awarded to a PTI dissident Nazeer Ahmed Khan.

Khan won in 2018 on a PTI ticket with 43,256 votes.

Assessment: This is one constituency where the PTI’s vote-bank has taken a hit, as in 2018 PML-N’s Rafiuddin Shah bagged 39,869 votes, this time he won by securing over 45,000 votes. The PML-N seems to have gained in PP-228, but the divisions in the party could prove detrimental in the next general election.

Shah was supported here by the Kanju group of PMLN, as they saw Nazeer Ahmed as a Tareen group candidate.

PP-237 Bahawalnagar

Winner: PML-N

Turnout: The turnout was 11% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: Fida Hussain, who won in 2018 as an independent, was able to retain his seat as a PML-N candidate by securing 10,000 more votes compared to 2018. The PML-N did not field any candidate from the constituency in 2018.

Assessment: The PTI seems to have lost around 16,000 votes in PP-237, as they could only secure 31,148 votes, compared to 47,763 in 2018.

PP-272 Muzaffargarh

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 6% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: Basit Bukhari won from here in 2018 bagging 23,587 votes, while PTI grabbed 18,197 votes.

This time around the PTI awarded the ticket to Moazzam Ali Khan, who had bagged over 72,000 votes. Bukhari’s wife, who was the PML-N candidate, polled second.

Assessment: Although the vote bank of Basit Bukhari’s family seems intact, it was not enough to stand PTI’s wave that was further strengthened by Imran Khan’s political rally in the constituency. It must also be noted that Bukhari’s wife, Zehra Batool, did not campaign herself and even her pictures were not displayed on her posters.

The young voters are also said to have come out in large numbers to support PTI here.

PP-273 Muzaffargarh

Winner: PML-N

Turnout: The turnout was 8% less than the 2018 general polls.

On the day: PML-N’s candidate Muhammad Sibtain Raza, a PTI dissident, apart from having his own voter base in the constituency also enjoyed the support of Ashiq Gopang, another PTI rebel MNA. Raza was able to win by securing 59,679 votes, compared to 36,369 in 2018. The PML-N got 14,944 more votes this time.

Assessment: This is one of the rare constituencies where the PML-N union with an electable proved beneficial for both and the PML-N secured a win.

PTI’s vote has also increased here, as their candidate, Yasir Arafat, also bagged 51,232 votes.

PP-282 Layyah

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 6% less compared to the 2018 general polls.

On the day: The PTI grabbed the seat by improving their vote tally by 20,000 in comparison to 2018.

Assessment: The divisions in the PML-N again cost the party. A politician from the PML-N, Muhammad Riaz, contested independently and bagged over 16,000 votes. These votes could have gone to the PML-N.

The PML-N has allotted the ticket to Muhammad Tahir Randhawa, who had contested the constituency independently in 2018 and won. This time his voters are reportedly upset with him for not doing anything for the people in three years.

PP-288 D.G. Khan

Winner: PTI

Turnout: The turnout was 2% less compared to the 2018 general polls.

On the day: In 2018, Mohsin Atta Khosa won the seat as an independent candidate securing above 39,000 votes. This time around despite PMLN backing, his nephew Abdul Qadir Khosa, who was the PML-N candidate, could only get a little above 32,000 votes.

The PTI, on the other hand, increased its vote share by 28,000 in comparison to 2018.

Assessment: PTI’s Zartaj Gul ran a vigorous campaign in the constituency for the candidate, which is why despite being a rural constituency women came out in large numbers in rickshaws to vote for the party.