Reset priorities or face civil anarchy

Massive floods, global recession and internal political fissures have multiplied political and economic challenges for Pakistan. It’s a grave crisis which, if not handled well, can lead to civil anarchy and further destabilisation. IMF has pointed to this scenario in its latest report.

PTI chairman Imran Khan continues his public meetings to force early elections. As an ex-prime minister, Imran Khan knows well that a sitting government has to be given space dealing with a natural disaster like floods. 

He should redirect his political campaign for flood relief for a few months and people will hover around him in even greater numbers at the end of this crisis. 

The nervous and struggling government should also stop registering FIRs against PTI leaders and tell its interior and legal teams to halt its actions for a few months.

The political acrimony has reached a stage that we cannot group together in natural disasters like floods or corona. We are fast approaching a phase when people will take matters in their own hands in reaction to the insensitivity of ruling classes. 

As a minimum first step, all political parties should jointly ask the Election Commission to postpone all by-elections in September.

Pakistanis are reeling under inflation of over 27%, the highest in last 50 years, and that is likely to go up after the floods. The Pak Rupee will again come under pressure as we will have to import cotton and wheat, etc., due to losses in floods and at a time when commodity prices are at record high. 

The global recession and record inflation are likely to continue well into 2023 as there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war. US economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, Europe has record inflation of over 9% and Chinese economy is struggling to grow. 

Due to the global slowdown, our exports will struggle to grow and foreign investments will dry up resulting in further pressure on our foreign reserves.

Ministry of Finance has slashed GDP growth target by half for FY 2022-23. The GDP slowdown will make tax collection difficult and we may struggle to achieve budgetary targets. 

Pakistan is already short of nearly three trillion rupees in tax revenue and USD 15 billion in foreign exchange and has entered over 15 IMF programmes since 1980. All above political and economic factors compound our problems and severely impact our ability to survive.

President Arif Alvi in a statement yesterday talked of efforts behind the scenes to make different stakeholders sit together to form consensus to address the national political and economic crisis. President Alvi needs to be supported by media and deep state to form a national agenda of survival in the short term leading to next general elections. 

President Alvi must immediately make a public appeal to leaders of all major political parties to sit together at the presidency to address major issues. It’s a moment of political reckoning for President Avi. He took a bold position yesterday asking the PTI chairman to defend his statement about appointment of new army chief. 

Now President Alvi should convince the PTI chairman to join the meeting of political leaders which he has not done for many years. The country needs all political leaders to huddle together to form a national consensus to address the political and economic crises.

Every stake holder in the country has to realise that we are one of the worst placed countries in the world to manage a large population in the face of existential threats like climate change/floods and an annihilistic Hindutva-centric neighbour. 

As per Bloomberg, Pakistan is only behind Egypt among 20 countries with largest populations, which has least gross capital formation to manage its population. China is at the top of the list of these 20 countries with gross capital formation equivalent to near 50% of its GDP whereas India and Bangladesh are sixth and seventh with gross capital formation equal to over 30% of their GDP. Pakistan is near bottom of list with its gross capital formation under 15% of GDP.

There is an extraordinary focus and burden on armed forces to resolve Pakistan’s problems. At every political and economic crisis, apart from its security challenges, the Pakistan army chief is expected to come forward. 

It is time the civil side shoulder its burdens and armed forces give maximum space and support to the civil side to do so. Due to the security environment in the Afghan corridor, the security establishment for over 40 years had an over extended role in Pakistan power structure. There is an ongoing effort to bring back needed political equilibrium and this needs to be expedited. 

President Alvi should step forward to address this dire need and arrange a huddle of all stakeholders to overcome the grave political and economic crisis. All stake holders should realize gravity of situation and respond to President Alvi’s call keeping the welfare of the hard pressed Pakistani population as priority number one. The use of excessive force or over ambitious targets will be counterproductive to address the grave national crisis and all stakeholders should sit down with a flexible mindset.