Argentina to win this year's FIFA World Cup: economist predicts

Argentina is the favourite for winning the FIFA World Cup 2022 finals while England has been predicted to lose the match against them, according to predictions made by an economist known for correctly predicting winners of the tournament in 2014 and 2018, reported Bloomberg.

Joachim Klement, an investment analyst at an investment banking firm, stands by his World Cup result forecast which he made in September, even before the mega sporting event began in Qatar. 

However, he disclosed "sweating a lot" while watching the nerve-wracking game between Saudi Arabia and Argentina during the World Cup's group stages in which the former beat the latter leaving football fans around the world stunned.

To make such predictions, the economist uses a four-factor-based model: GDP per capita, population size, culture and climate. According to this model, warmer countries where the game can be played throughout the year are the best performers and have a massive population which also likes football and a high GDP rate per capita.

The three major outliers in the economist's model are China, India and the Netherlands.

"The Indians have decided to play cricket, God knows why, and the Chinese for some strange reason have really caught up on that,” Klement said, speaking to Bloomberg.

He said that considering the Netherlands' relatively small population, it has been “incredibly successful at football”.

The investment analyst said it was not his intention to develop this working prediction model. In fact, he intended to take a jibe at economists who claim to "predict absolutely everything" by doing so.

Klement first predicted England losing to Argentina in September via a note in which he mentioned that the latter's path to winning the coveted FIFA trophy for the first time in 36 years would comprise Spain's defeat at its hands in the semi-final match.

In his note, however, the economist also stated that the ongoing World Cup has been more difficult to predict than the ones before as the tournament has been taking place in the winter season.

He revealed that the collective value of players in a team has not been much reliable as an approach to making predictions about winners as much as viewing underlying factors of its success has been.

“I'm a bit cautious about using the collective value of players because the Premier League has so much more money at its disposal and can pay so much more for players,” Klement said.

“The good news for England fans is England is going to make it into the final. The bad news is they're going to lose this one.”