Iran-Saudi talks: What went right this time?

The world is witnessing a tectonic shift in Iran-Saudi Arabia diplomatic relations. Three years ago, who could imagine King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud would be invited to Tehran or President Ebrahim Raisi graciously accepting such an invitation from Riyadh?

In a world exclusive, GEO News reveals who played what role in bringing the arch-rivals together in pursuing peace and helping stabilise the region.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan claims that he laid the foundation of peace during his back-to-back visits to Tehran and Riyadh. As a matter of fact, part of his claim is true.

In October 2019, he visited both countries for mediation on his own initiative, and the Iranian president also accepted his role.

But a top diplomat, who cannot be named, as he is not officially authorised to speak on the issue, revealed that Saudi Arabia was not ready to accept that mediation.

The situation was so tense that two years before Imran Khan’s visit to both capitals, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) categorically rejected the possibility of any direct dialogue with Iran. Most probably in a reference to the 1979 Islamic revolution by Ayatollah Khomeini, MBS gave a compelling reason.

In an interview with MBC television, MBS said, “How do you have a dialogue with a regime built on an extremist ideology….that they must control the land of Muslims and spread their sect in the Muslim world?”

The interview got aired at a moment when the Saudi-led coalition was bombing Yemen, while rockets were being fired at southern Saudi Arabia indiscriminately. In another hotspot, Syria, embattled President Bashar al Assad had withstood an uprising with the help of Iran and Russia.

Imran Khan’s initiative also couldn’t materialise because it was dominated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Apparently, President Putin was trying to take advantage of the crisis created by Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal assassination. After all, US intelligence was pointing fingers at MBS for that murder in Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.

By undertaking that visit, Putin ensured Russia’s greater role in the Middle East. Yet, the time was not ripe even for Kremlin to mediate between Tehran and Riyadh. The very next year, the situation started changing dramatically.

Another diplomat claimed on the condition of anonymity that after his enthronement in 2020, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq of Oman took it upon himself to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Sultan Haitham is the cousin of the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said who made name for his wisdom and neutrality in a troubled region. The former sultan was credited for mediating between the arch-rival Iraq and Iran to end the nine-year war in 1989. It was also under his stewardship that the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) or the Iran nuclear deal was signed.

Two years ago, under the patronage of his able successor Sultan Haitham, a secret mediation kicked off between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Then, expert-level talks on "security and intelligence issues" were held in Iraq which continued over the years. Things "progressed at a snail’s pace". The unpleasant past turned out to be the main obstacle in breaking the ice. Yet, each side remains committed to finding a solution.

Completion of these two-year-long negotiations paved the way for the second phase that focused on diplomatic affairs. Consequently, the foreign ministries of both countries sat around the table. According to the source, "Once diplomats took over, the developments speeded up". Both sides agreed to "bury the past" and look to the future.

At one point, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi also made back-to-back trips to Saudi Arabia and Iran to seal the deal.

All was set but needed a bigger and stronger launchpad. In this third phase, China came in with a wider diplomatic umbrella. After all, Beijing is the economic lifeline of Muscat and equally enjoys close ties with Baghdad, Tehran, and Riyadh.

Utilising that leverage, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh. Soon after that visit, a top Chinese official travelled to Tehran to convey Saudi Arabia's message. As a result of these two visits of Chinese officials to Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Chinese government got involved in the peace-making process.

President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Beijing coincided with that development. Though, the summit was for bilateral engagements regional issues including rapprochement got added to the agenda.

This is how, Oman-mediated, Iraq-facilitated and China-moderated dialogues reached their penultimate conclusion.

Thus, on April 6, the diplomatic miracle was observed by the world as Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Hossein Amirabdollahian shook hands in the presence of their Chinese counterpart Qin Gang. Key mediator Oman and top facilitator Iraq quietly faded out of the picture.

The question is what made the mediation work this time around? And what convinced MBS to revive bilateral relations with a
"regime built on an extremist ideology".

According to one source, "MBS is an astute politician who knows how to achieve goals."

But, how long will this rapprochement last as there is a history of ups and down in Riyadh-Tehran ties?

Back in 1997, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah attended the OIC Summit in Tehran — a first of its kind by any high-profile Saudi leader since the Iranian revolution. The then-reformist president Khatami reciprocated the gesture by visiting Riyadh.

However, in the last 10 years, much has changed. Not long ago, a Saudi diplomatic mission in Tehran was attacked by a raging mob after Saudi Arabia executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a cleric, who had openly supported mass anti-government protests.

Saudi Arabia had also blamed Iran for arming Yemeni Houthis who claimed responsibility for attacking Riyadh and Saudi Aramco oil processing plants. The uprising against Bahraini rulers was also viewed with suspicions.

On the other hand, Iran had its own grievances. Tehran blamed that access to the bodies of its 464 citizens, killed in a stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage, was not immediately granted. It also claimed that one of its citizens was arrested after Hajj.

Clashes during Hajj had earlier resulted in the death of 275 Iranian pilgrims following which the Saudi embassy in Tehran was ransacked. That tumultuous incident was enough to sever ties between the two countries for four years.

With that chequered history in mind, one can see how fragile this peace process is and how vigilant both countries should be to remain on the diplomatic track.

"That’s exactly why Beijing has stepped in" said the source, claiming that "by this move, China is also trying to raise its own stature from economic to a diplomatic superpower."