Punjab might lose 8 NA seats after digital census: report

• Punjab's share of seats in NA expected to decrease down to 133, journalist says.
• Mehdi says Punjab’s loss will mainly be Balochistan’s gain.
• "Number, if correct, will lead to serious controversy," warns PILDAT chief.

KARACHI: After the provisional results of the ongoing digital census, Punjab may lose eight seats in the National Assembly, The News reported citing local media outlet Lok Sujag on Wednesday.

"Punjab’s loss will mainly be Balochistan’s gain," journalist Tahir Mehdi wrote in his report.

According to the publication, Punjab's population is not more than half of Pakistan's anymore.

"According to the provisional results of the digital population census made public by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the province now accounts for exactly half of the country’s population," the report mentioned, as cited by The News.

The percentage of the province's population has been consistently declining in successive censuses.

"The share of province in [the] country’s population dropped from 55.63% in 1998 to 52.96% in 2017....[and] now stands at 49.96%," the report read.

Given how Punjab's share of 141 seats in the lower house is expected to decrease down to 133, Mehdi, while speaking to The News, said that it is not that population in the province is not growing but that the “rate of [population] growth" in Punjab is slow.

"National Assembly seats are allocated according to population so if Punjab’s population is increasing at a slower rate then its share in the total [seats] will be lower," he said.

Commenting regarding the controversy in the wake of the results, the journalist said that these ongoing census in Pakistan have been problematic.

"Even now it won’t be without controversy but this time the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is claiming that they are geotagging, and vetting CNICs etc — so hopefully this will be better," he said.

In his report, Mehdi stated that while Sindh may not be the biggest beneficiary of the loss that Punjab would incur as a result of the census, it will likely gain just one seat in the National Assembly.

"It will be Balochistan that will gain most of the seats lost by Punjab. The population of the province has shown a whooping growth of 62.9% since 2017," he wrote.

Mehdi told The News that while growth rate in Balochistan has been phenomenal with nearly 63% increase in its population from 2017 to 2023, Punjab has witnessed a 6% decrease.

"The reasons for that could be that either in 2017 the Baloch were undercounted and now they have been counted right. Or in this 2023 census they have been overcounted," he highlighted.

The journalist, however, feels that “even if you somewhat believe the PBS’s claims [of how they have conducted the census] there are fewer chances of the latter, so this means simply that last time Balochistan was undercounted."

He further informed that previously the areas considered as dangerous, conflict-ridden, remote or even difficult to access were not reached, as enumerators would opt to stay home instead of going to these places.

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) President Ahmed Bilal Mehboob believes that the census will retain its controversy.

"The possible change in the number of allocated National Assembly seats to each province in the light of the 2023 census is not yet confirmed and may change before the final result is approved by the Council of Common Interests and then notified," he said, adding that census results have become controversial.

He further mentioned that this apparent difference in the number of NA seats seems difficult to rationalise, as the census is being conducted after only five years and not the usual 10.

"My guess is that this number, if correct, will lead to serious controversy and — coupled with the complaints about the Karachi census — has the potential to destroy the credibility of the census," he said.

When The News asked how political parties will view this development, he said that their perspectives will vary.

"It could be that those in Punjab will feel this is an incorrect count while those in Balochistan could well say they are still undercounted," he said.

Mehdi added: "The significance of this count for political parties will depend on the timing of the general election. If the election is early then this census will not the basis for the delimitation but if the census is notified officially then for the [Election Commission of Pakistan] ECP it is constitutionally mandatory to conduct delimitation on the basis of the new census — by mid-June."

However, he added, the ECP would need four months prior to the polls for the delimitation exercise.

"Since it is as yet unclear when the census will be notified and whether delimitation will be done on its basis, things are still up in the air," Mehdi told The News.

Commenting on political reaction, PILDAT's Mehboob opined that except for the political parties concentrated in Karachi, others have been engrossed in discourse regarding the date of provincial election and its impact on the general polls, the controversy in relation to the Supreme Court judges and other matters.

"But as the census results become known and the possible effect on seat allocation is realised, the controversy will gain momentum," he said.

Mehboob advised the government to "immediately work on management of this foreseeable crisis — as if we had any dearth of crises."

When questioned if this potential loss of Punjab's share and the Balochistan's gain could result in obscurity, Mehdi said that Balochistan's result is suprising, but was expected following the difference in growth rate of the province's Balochistan and could affect the seats in Punjab.

"Punjab even after the 2017 census had lost seats [seven in total]. Even within Punjab, we may see a shift — once the district wise details of the census become clear — from central to southern Punjab," the journalist said.

Mehboob believes that the communication strategy could be one of the issues with the census exercise and the confusion concerning its results.

"The PBS needs to communicate professionally and confidently. The change in statistics of Karachi population with every extension has contributed to erosion of trust in the census figures. There is still time to salvage this expensive exercise. The government should focus on this before it is too late," the PILDAT president said.

The News wrote that while summarising Mehdi's report, senior journalist Amber Shamsi tweeted: "The controversy over the census keeps surfacing in Karachi and Sindh, but the loss is Punjab’s, first in 2017 and the second time in 2023. Political implication: Punjab eventually loses its [significance] in national politics."