Below normal rains, above normal temperatures likely in Pakistan during monsoon season
"There are very little chances of any repetition of monsoonal floods in this region," says weatherman
May 03, 2023
ISLAMABAD: The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast "below normal" rainfall in Pakistan during in the upcoming monsoon season — June - September 2023.
In a statement, the SASCOF said that minimum and maximum temperatures in South Asia, including Pakistan, are expected to remain "above normal", except in parts of the foothills of the Himalayas.
"Temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans are not favourable for a strong monsoon season in South Asia, especially in Pakistan. Pakistan's southern region including Sindh and Balochistan are likely to receive below normal rainfall between June-September 2023," Dr Sardar Sarfraz, the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) chief meteorological officer (CMO) in Sindh representing Pakistan in the 25th session of SASCOF, told The News on Tuesday.
Meteorologists and hydrological experts from South Asian countries — including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives and Myanmar — as well as World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) attended the 25th session of SASCOF-25 held between April 27 to 29 and issued a consensus statement regarding monsoon season in the region between June to September 2023.
Dr Sarfraz said that in addition to climatic conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, relatively high temperatures in Pakistan in the months of March and April this year were also not favourable for the normal or above-normal monsoon rains.
He added that some areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) were expected to receive slightly above-normal rainfall while Gilgit Baltistan and Punjab were likely to receive normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
"Contrary to last year, when it was predicted that southern Pakistan would receive 60% above rainfall, we are not expecting such heavy rains in Sindh and Balochistan, so there are very little chances of any repetition of monsoonal floods in this region," Dr Sarfraz highlighted.
He maintained that Pakistan was currently in the grip of a westerly wave, which kept temperatures down in most parts of the country and predicted that another westerly wave in the last week of May could bring more rain and decrease the temperature in many parts of the country.
As far as temperatures between June to September 2023 are concerned, the weatherman said most parts of Pakistan will have above-normal temperatures during the monsoon season.
"As there would be a lesser cloud coverage in the country during the monsoon season, minimum temperatures will remain above normal in the plains and even hilly areas of the country with a few exceptions," he added.
Quoting the statement, Dr Sarfraz said the outlook on minimum temperatures for June to September 2023 season suggests above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of South Asia except parts of the foothills of Himalayas during the season.
Consensus outlook on maximum temperatures for June to September 2023 season suggests that the seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the region except central and parts of the southern region of South Asia, he said.
The official further mentioned that as the rainfall and temperature during the southwest monsoon season depict strong intra-seasonal variability, it is advised to watch the extended range forecasts along with updated seasonal forecasts for better decision-making.
