China's marriage rate declines raising concerns of looming population crisis

China witnessed a significant decline in the number of marriages last year, reaching the lowest level since public records were available, signalling a growing concern over a potential demographic crisis due to plummeting birth rates. 

According to data released by China's Ministry of Civil Affairs on Friday, approximately 6.83 million couples tied the knot in 2022. This figure represents a decline of around 10.5% compared to the 7.63 million marriage registrations in 2021, marking a record low since 1986 when the ministry began publishing statistics.

The decline in marriages aligns with a nearly decade-long trend, with the number of people choosing to get married steadily decreasing since 2013 when over 13 million couples got married. The decreasing marriage rates, coupled with a noticeable decline in birth rates, have become a matter of significant concern for authorities in Beijing. Experts have warned about the potentially severe economic impact of a shrinking workforce and an ageing population.

China's population experienced its first contraction in over 60 years in 2022, with a birth rate of only 6.77 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level since the establishment of Communist China in 1949. The country, which currently stands as the world's second most populous nation with 1.4 billion people, is gradually falling behind India, according to the United Nations.

Chinese officials have recognised a direct correlation between declining marriage rates and falling birth rates. The social norms and government regulations in China pose challenges for unmarried couples in having children. In an attempt to reverse these trends, authorities have implemented measures such as relaxing the long-standing policy that limited the number of children married couples could have and exploring ways to incentivise both marriage and childbirth.

Factors contributing to the decline in marriages include the rising marriage age, a decreasing number of young people in China, and gender imbalances. Younger women, in particular, are expressing disillusionment with marriage due to concerns about gender inequality. Efforts by Chinese officials to reverse these trends have yet to yield significant results in the face of the complex economic and social issues at play.

While China is not the only country grappling with declining birth rates and shrinking populations, countries like Japan and South Korea have also implemented various measures to encourage childbirth, such as financial incentives, housing subsidies, and increased childcare support, with limited success. The demographic challenges faced by these nations highlight the need for innovative and sustainable solutions to address the potential long-term consequences of declining birth rates.

Amidst a challenging year due to the strict COVID-19 measures, including lockdowns and restrictions, the decline in marriages persists. This decline has significant implications for China's future, as it contributes to a diminishing workforce and an ageing population. In 2022, China experienced its first population shrinkage in over 60 years, with the number of births per 1,000 people reaching its lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. These trends have pushed China, once the most populous nation, to second place behind India.

Chinese authorities attribute the decline in marriages to various factors, including financial pressures faced by young adults, high unemployment rates, and the rising cost of living. Additionally, government regulations and societal norms make it challenging for unmarried couples to have children, further exacerbating the situation. Efforts to reverse the trend have been made, such as relaxing the longstanding one-child policy and implementing measures to incentivise marriage and childbirth. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains limited.

Changing gender norms and expanding career opportunities for women have also influenced attitudes towards marriage. Younger women, in particular, are growing disillusioned with marriage due to concerns about gender inequality. The average age for first marriages has increased significantly in the past decade, with young adults prioritising personal and professional development over settling down.

China's declining birth rates and shrinking population pose significant economic and social challenges. The government has implemented various initiatives, including mass blind dating events and programs promoting a new concept of marriage and childbearing. However, these efforts have yet to yield substantial results. Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, have faced similar issues and introduced measures to encourage births but with limited success.

As China grapples with these demographic challenges, finding effective solutions will be crucial to ensure a sustainable and balanced population structure for the country's future.