Putin to make first global appearance at SCO summit after Wagner mutiny

After crushing the Wagner rebellion, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all set to make his first international appearance by virtually attending Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and is also slated to meet with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping among others on its sidelines.

The 70-year-old Russian leader will participate virtually Tuesday as the host announced in May that the summit would be held online, in which Iran will also participate for the first time as a full member.

The world is waiting to see how the Russian President fares at this international event after successfully neutralising a small-scale mutiny by a private military contractor Wagner led by his former associate Yevgeny Prigozhin.

During the chaotic days, the mercenaries claimed to have taken control of some military facilities in two Russian cities with a large number of trained fighters headed to Moscow.

After coming across the mutiny, Kremlin deployed heavily armed troops to the streets in the Russian capital which was showing a scene as if a civil war was about to start.

The insurrection was ended within days after Russian authorities reached a deal with the Wagner chief that he would be sent to the neighbouring Belarus.

Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, a US-based think tank, said: "It's virtual, so they’re not going to be there in person, otherwise they would be standing alongside each other, fellow strongmen showing strength."

"If Putin is kind of shaken by this [insurrection] visibly, then that would tell them something — that even the strongest of strongmen is not necessarily immune to potential insurgencies within their countries," Grossman said.

The China-led SCO is focused on increasing regional security and economic cooperation, combating terrorism and drug trafficking, fighting climate change and the situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban assumed Kabul in 2021.

According to the analysts, as the Ukrainian conflict was not a feature of the SCO foreign minister's meeting in India in May, its impacts were felt by countries all over the world.

The forum — which came into being in 2001 — is crucial for Russia as it shows that the West could not isolate Moscow.

"This SCO meeting is really one of the few opportunities globally that Putin will have to project strength and credibility," said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

"Putin will want to reassure his partners that he is very much still in charge, and leave no doubt that the challenges to his government have been crushed," said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The meeting provides India with an opportunity to exert its diplomatic muscles showing a strong country in the region as PM Narendra Modi last month was hosted in the White House during his official trip to the US where he met a number of business leaders among others.    

"India glorifies in this type of foreign policy where it’s wheeling and dealing with everybody at the same time," said Grossman referring to India's cordiality with the West and its opposing group.

Analysts noted that China, seeking to posture itself as a global force, is becoming a dominant player in forums like the SCO, where interest in full membership from countries like Myanmar, Turkey and Afghanistan has grown in recent years.

"For countries uncomfortable with the West and their foreign policies, the SCO is a welcome alternative, mainly because of the roles Russia and China play. ... I think that highlights just how relevant and concerning this group could be for a number of Western capitals, especially if it keeps expanding," said Kugelman.