Elections 2024: Why is Punjab pivotal for Pakistan's political future?

As Pakistan approaches the much-awaited general elections next month, all eyes are on Punjab, the most populous province and the heartland of politics, which has always played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape of the country.

Punjab not only has the largest population and competitiveness, but it also stands out as a crucial battleground that majorly impacts the outcome of the elections which affects the country's future. 

Major political parties like Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPP-P), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) vie for most seats from Punjab as it has 141 of the 266 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of the parliament.

History has it that political parties which have established a stronghold in Punjab have managed to form a government in the centre as well, mainly because of the large number of seats in the NA. 

This makes it a prerequisite for the parties, which aspire to form a government at the centre, to win the most seats in Punjab. And those parties that can navigate the complexities of the province's political landscape are well-positioned to lead the nation.

But the question that arises here is: Can a political party form a government in the centre despite losing in Punjab or what role does Punjab play in the general elections? For this, let's take a look at the 2018, 2013, and 2008 general elections.

But first, take this poll to share who you think will win most NA seats in Punjab in 2024.

In the 2018 elections, the PTI emerged as the largest party in Punjab with 66 seats while PML-N became the second-largest party with 64 seats. Meanwhile, PPP-P only managed to bag six seats in the province.

The PTI, with a majority of 115 NA seats, managed to form a government in the centre in the previous general elections. 

The party won 46.8% of the total general seats in Punjab i.e. 141 and PML-N 45.3% while PPP-P was just 4.2% in the 2018 elections. 

2013

The PML-N topped the electoral race in 2013 by winning the major number of NA seats — 116 — from Punjab while PTI could only get its hands on eight and PPP-P on two.

Though the PTI remained the second-largest party in Punjab, the PML-N did not cease to surprise as Nawaz Sharif became the prime minister for the third time in 2013. 

In 2013, the PML-N won the majority of 78.3% of the total general seats of Punjab — 148 — in NA with PTI just a meagre of 5.4% and PPP-P 1.3%. 

2008

The elections took place just a few days after Benazir Bhutto's death and were predictably swept by the Zardari-led PPP-P even though it remained the second-largest party in Punjab after PML-N, considering the number of seats. 

The PPP-P bagged 45 seats in Punjab, PML-N won the majority with 63 seats while PML-Q clinched 27 seats. However, the Zardari-led party, despite losing the majority in Punjab, formed a coalition at the centre by forming alliances in other provinces.

The PML-N had also bagged the most number of seats, which is 42.5% of the total general seats in Punjab. Meanwhile, the PPP-P won 30.4% and PML-Q 18.2%. 

Punjab 'very important' for govt formation in centre

In an interview with Geo.tv, senior journalist Majid Nizami spoke about the importance of Punjab for the parties to form a government at the centre, saying that parties needed to win a significant number of seats — 40 or 50 — in the province.

However, parties can also form a coalition with others like the PPP-P did in 2008 by forming alliances in KP, Sindh and Balochistan even after PML-N won in Punjab, he added.

On the other hand, journalist Benazir Shah told Geo.tv that for any political party looking to take a majority in the parliament, it would need to rack up a considerable number of seats in Punjab as it held importance electorally.

Ahmed Bilal, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat), urged that nothing could be ruled out in politics as with the extremely split mandate being predicted, a coalition could be a strong possibility. However, he added, that it was never good for political stability.

"Centre-province tensions mar progress as political parties think of the political gains rather than the general good of the people," he observed when responding to Geo.tv.

On the other hand, Journalist Haroon Rashid, in an interview with Geo.tv, called this a "problematic arrangement" adding Punjab could create a lot of problems for the federal government.

PML-N in 'better position' to form govt

Experts believe that PTI does not have a level playing field as their party founder is incarcerated and unable to contest the polls.

Nizami said that the public sentiment was inclined towards PTI; however, the situation was still unclear whether it would convert into votes on election day.

"If there is no fear of violence from the state, then people may turn up to vote. Otherwise, the current situation in which people are getting arrested while others are in jail then this factor can also scare the voters," he added.

Rashid, on the other hand, said: "Since PTI doesn’t seem to have a level playing field, it seems PML-N will be the second best possibility", adding that he sees a coalition ruling in Punjab."

The Pildat president said that PML-N would be in a "better position" to gain the largest number of seats in the NA and PA if the current scenario continued. "There hasn't been a level playing field in the past and so is the case now but whatever the situation on the ground, PML-N seems to be getting the maximum number of seats," he maintained.

'Victimisation, anti-establishment sentiment' major factors in voters' choice

Nizami explained various factors which determined the voters' choice in the elections including the development of their cities, election campaigns and their sentiments towards the parties and their leaders.

"There are different factors, but first of all, the voters think about the development of their cities as to which [party] has played a major role in it. The second factor is the election campaign and which political party is in the opposition and which is facing political victimisation like PTI these days so the voters also cast their votes based on their sentiments," he added.

Meanwhile, Pildat President Bilal said the factors that will dominate the coming elections will be how the parties "portray themselves as victims of excesses by the government and establishment and how successfully they portray their opponents as cheats, thieves, people who have strangled public money".

"Anti-establishment [sentiment] will also be a selling point in the coming elections. It will not be policies, unfortunately, or issues. It will be just very effectively communicating your victimhood and the aggression and wrongness of the others," he added.

Journalist Shah said the themes that could influence voters' choice include inflation and the role of the military in Pakistan's politics.

IPP unlikely to make major impact

Speaking about the Istehkam-e-Paksitan Party's (IPP) impact on PTI in the upcoming polls, Nizami said that the Jahangir Tareen-led party would not influence the PTI as it was a group of electables with solid votes.

Bilal said that IPP would not have a great impact on elections or PTI as the members of the party have deserted PTI and don't hold any personal position.

"They won an election and had a political position because of Imran Khan. Now that they are no more with him, I do not see them having any political weight," he claimed.

On the other hand, Rashid said IPP was bound to cause some political dent in the PTI with its expertise in getting electables to its side.

"The IPP's agenda aligns with that of the establishment so it can get some support from it," said Rashid.

'Voter turnout may be low'

Meanwhile, the voter turnout in these elections was expected to be low as according to Nizami it depends on political campaigning, rallies and political mobilisation.

Rashid, on the other hand, said: "If PTI voters come out in large numbers and get counted fairly we may have better turnout, but this seems very difficult to achieve because of several obvious reasons."

He added that there would be fewer voters at the polling stations on February 8 if PTI voters were taken out of the equation.

The Pildat president said that the voter turnout could be decent if PTI decided to mobilise its voters despite the current situation. However, he added that it might not still exceed the 2013 and 2018 elections. 

The voter turnout in Punjab in 2008 was the lowest i.e. 48% while the turnout in 2013 and 2018 was 60% and 56.8%, respectively. 

In this saga of politics and power, Punjab is expected to emerge as the decisive force that could steer the course of Pakistan's political destiny on February 8.

Uswah Zahid is a staffer at Geo.tv. She posts on X @Uswahzahid

— Header and thumbnail illustration by Geo.tv