Decoding India's gamble in Kashmir

At an event commemorating the 25th anniversary of the India-Pakistan conflict in Kargil, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused Pakistan of attempting to maintain relevance through "terrorism" and "proxy war". He asserted that such a strategy would never succeed. "Our brave forces will squash terrorism, and the enemy will be given a befitting reply", he said.

This alarming statement came in the wake of a recent increase in assaults on Indian military and paramilitary forces in the Jammu region, suggesting a troubling signal regarding India's intentions toward Pakistan. 

It was reported that nearly 50 soldiers in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) were killed in the last three years. Five deadly attacks over the previous two months claimed the lives of 16 Indian personnel. In an article for The Hindu dated July 27, 2024, Peerzada Ashiq reports that this year has seen the highest level of such activity in the Jammu region since 2005.

The growing attacks on Indian forces have deeply perturbed the BJP government and exposed its vulnerabilities. Since the revocation of Article 370, which placed IIOJK under direct rule from New Delhi, the BJP has refused to engage with the forces of resistance in Kashmir. Using brute force, all key resistance leaders were imprisoned, and zero tolerance was shown towards any form of political activity that reflected dissent.

Social media influencers and human rights defenders, like Khurram Parvez, were jailed on fabricated and politically motivated charges. Even pro-India Kashmiri politicians have been ruthlessly dealt with by New Delhi in recent times. 

The BJP boasted that normalcy had returned to IIOJK, claiming that stone pelting, shutdown calls, and street protests were a thing of the past. But the tide has changed to a great extent.

There is a likelihood that the rising attacks in the Jammu region may be used as a pretext to delay the IIOJK Assembly elections, which are supposed to be held in September this year, as mandated by the Supreme Court of India. 

The unprecedented turnout in the recent Lok Sabha elections in IIOJK stunned everyone. However, the BJP could not secure any seats from the Muslim-majority areas of the Kashmir Valley.

Interestingly, incarcerated leader Engineer Rashid emerged victorious from the Baramulla constituency. Former chief minister Omar Abdullah and the People's Conference Chief, Sajjad Lone, were defeated by a huge margin. Rashid extensively rallied on pro-Azad slogans, leveraging deep-seated anti-India sentiment. This severely frustrated New Delhi’s plan to install a BJP-handpicked leader on the throne of IIOJK. Given this, the BJP fears it might be unable to secure a reasonable number of seats from the Kashmir Valley.

Therefore, it is backtracking from holding elections and restoring IIOJK's statehood. However, if it has to conduct elections, it aims to install a spineless chief minister in Kashmir. 

In this context, to limit the executive powers of the chief minister of IIOJK, the government of India instituted a structural disempowerment strategy by entrusting all major powers to the lieutenant governor who will hold exclusive authority over issues concerning police, public order, and the appointment and transfer of All India Services officers, as well as senior legal officers, including the Advocate General of the Union Territory. 

The executive authority of the upcoming chief minister of IIOJK will be reduced to that of a municipal corporation head.

The attacks on Indian forces have escalated anti-Pakistan rhetoric in India. News channels and print media are filled with hostile comments and analysis. 

A careful examination of Indian media reveals that Pakistan-bashing is a favourite pastime of retired army officers and diplomats. Instead of asking tough questions to their government and holding it accountable for its failures in IIOJK, Pakistan is being blamed for their intelligence failures despite the presence of over half a million Indian forces in the region.

The growing anger might lead to the resumption of exchanges of fire along the 740 km-long Line of Control (LoC), which divides the former state of IIOJK and has observed a strict ceasefire since February 2021. 

Periodic skirmishes along the LoC have the potential to create a war-like situation at the border and further reduce the chances of rapprochement between the two countries.

On the other hand, Modi’s charisma has faded, and the people of India have cut the BJP down to size in the last general elections. Congress and regional political parties staged an impressive comeback. Besides IIOJK, state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana are also scheduled in the next five months. 

The results of these elections will determine the future of the BJP’s politics. Modi’s anti-Muslim public speeches have rallied not only Muslims but also all minorities behind the opposition parties, resulting in an electoral setback for the BJP in the recent Lok Sabha elections. To regain its lost ground, the BJP is desperately seeking a scapegoat to beat the war drums and rally the right-wing vote bank around the BJP. The BJP cannot find a better alternative than Pakistan.

Do not forget that under Prime Minister Modi, India ventured into extra-territorial assassinations, with over 20 Pakistani citizens killed in covert operations orchestrated by India and two Sikh activists murdered in Canada. 

Indian authorities, and even Modi himself, told reporters, “Today, even India’s enemies know: This is Modi, this is the new India. This New India comes into your home and kills you,” as reported by the Washington Post.

India also turned down the olive branch offered by Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, who advocated for the normalisation of relations with India and recently expressed Pakistan’s openness to dialogue. 

In short, India's domestic political and electoral needs, coupled with the BJP's ideological agenda, and hegemonic designs in the region, might tempt it to resort to something inside Pakistan.

Given this, Pakistan must be vigilant and proactive to avert and counter potential escalation with India. It also needs to build its relations with Indian civil society, human rights activists, opposition political parties, and diaspora leaders, as the BJP is fast losing ground and new power centers are emerging in India.

By doing so, Pakistan can foster a lobby within India that offers an alternative perspective and challenges Modi’s aggressive and right-wing approach.

The writer is a freelance contributor. He tweets @ErshadMahmud and can be reached at: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News