What to expect in Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina?

One of the biggest challenges of any revolution is not merely the change of a ruler or system but sustaining the change or revolution itself. The recent events in Bangladesh were anticipated; the writing was on the wall due to the authoritarian governance of the ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed. 

Over 300 people were killed, with 90 deaths occurring just a day before she was asked to step down by the country's Army Chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, who assumed office only a month ago. He has promised an interim setup, but it is unclear how long this will last and when the country will return to a new democratic path.

Historically, student uprisings in Bangladesh, even before its independence in 1971, have often led to change. Sheikh Hasina, who herself had been part of such movements in the past, should have seen it coming. She should have also learnt from the fall and eventual assassination of her father, the founder of the country, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975. 

She could have handled the protests against the ‘quota system in jobs’ like any other national issue, but instead treated it as an anti-government movement, which it ultimately turned out to be, leaving her with no one but herself to blame.

University and student movements have played a critical role in bringing about change around the world, particularly in South Asia. From Iran and Afghanistan to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, political activism by students has made history. Dhaka University, in particular, has played a historic role in shaping Bangladesh’s political landscape, including its very creation. The Iranian revolution of 1979 began at Tehran University, and similar changes in Afghanistan started at Kabul University. In Pakistan, campus activism played a key role in the student movement of 1953 and the anti-Ayub Khan agitation.

Someone like Sheikh Hasina should have known that her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was a product of the student movement. Unfortunately, she adopted the style of a dictator and crushed her political opponents, whether it was former premier Khaleda Zia and her party or Jamaat-e-Islami, which she banned a few months ago after executing some JI leaders for their alleged roles during the 1971 crisis.

In the past, Bangladesh has experienced martial law before the country returned to democracy. But democracy, by its very definition, is the will of the people. If the people have the power to bring you into power, they also have the power to overthrow you, either through elections or sometimes through street power.

Every people's movement is deeply connected to public issues, often related to economic meltdowns, lack of jobs, or injustice. The recently adopted policy of Sheikh Hasina about the job quota created unrest, as the people, particularly the students belonging to the middle class, were opposed to it and wanted better reforms. She badly handled a simple issue and was confident that she could manage the 'handful' of opponents. She was proven wrong and, instead of realising that the situation was getting out of control, she started using brute power, banned social media and the internet, and put journalists behind bars.

The army allowed her to arrange her exit and departure from Dhaka, as they didn’t want to see a repeat of 1975. But now she is gone and likes to live in exile, for God knows how many years. Politics is a game of opportunities and it now depends on the new interim government and future government, which should be there through elections, not to repeat the mistakes of Sheikh Hasina or her party, the Awami League. Instead, the first and utmost task for the interim setup is to handle the main issue of the ‘job quota’, which led to this movement. If the new ruling regime, whether interim or formed through elections, adopts the policy of political victimisation as Sheikh Hasina did, the situation could lead to more chaos.

So, one has to wait and see after the formal launch of an interim setup as to how long it takes before the country goes to new elections. She might be the most unpopular politician in Bangladesh today, but in politics, a few bad mistakes could change the scenario, something the new rulers of the country must know.

For a country like Pakistan, where political and economic uncertainty is the only certainty, there is a lot to learn. Some 40 years ago, one of Pakistan’s longest-serving military dictators, General Ziaul Haq, banned student unions, and as a result, the campuses became nurseries for extremists and society underwent depoliticisation, leading to a chaotic Pakistan.

Pakistan’s ruling elite must realise that imposing a ban on the media and the voice of dissent, putting political opponents in prison, and trying to ban popular political parties will not resolve the crisis. We may not see something like what happened in Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or for that matter something close to the Arab Spring, but the situation here is far graver than what we have seen on the streets of Dhaka.

Here, dharna politics has replaced street agitation like the one we witnessed in 1977 and to some extent in 1983. Whether it is Imran Khan's dharna of 2014 against alleged rigging or Jamaat-e-Islami’s dharna against power price hikes and unbearable increases in electricity bills, the rising political discomfort in the tribal belt of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan and the rise in terrorist attacks are far more disturbing.

The vote of no confidence in March 2022 against former prime minister Imran Khan, though constitutional, succeeded only with the help of the then Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. The 'change' did not bring a positive shift, and the unpopular Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) regime and Imran Khan quickly became the most popular. It was a political blunder that ultimately led to the February 8, 2024, election mandate in favour of the PTI. Despite the change in government in 2022 and even after the new government in 2024, we have not been able to come out of the crisis, as today’s rulers are facing a serious credibility issue.

Political stability leads to economic stability, and respect for true democratic values is essential, whether in Bangladesh or Pakistan.

 What is next for Bangladesh? For General Zaman, the new army chief, the best way is to go back to the barracks after setting up an interim government and supporting the new regime in the democratic process. The next 90 days will be crucial for the interim setup, which should lead to the ultimate return of full-fledged democracy.

For Sheikh Hasina, it's time to learn from the mistakes and blunders she has committed in her long political career, both as the country’s premier and leader of the Awami League.

Writer is a political columnist and analyst for GEO, Jang and The News.

X@MazharAbbasGEO