Stocks surge over 900 points on renewed economic optimism in day trade

A day after a flat close, stocks surged over 900 points in Thursday’s intraday trade, testing the 83,000-point barrier as easing inflationary pressures and stronger economic indicators drove investors to bag high-yield equities.

Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 index gained 924.94 points or 1.13% to hit a high of 82,958.73 at around 2:06pm.

Commenting on this sharp rise, Raza Jafri, CEO at EFG Hermes Pakistan, said lower bond yields were making equities more attractive, especially high-dividend yielding and highly leveraged stocks.

"A significant chunk of foreign supply has also been absorbed, which is giving more confidence to buyers. We expect the market to continue rising, and make new highs," Jafri added.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday, supported by falling inflation, a stable rupee, and agricultural growth, with the apex index closing at 81,967.01 points, up 162.41 points or 0.2%.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation dropped to 6.9% year-on-year in September 2024, the lowest since January 2021, down from 9.6% in August, driven by the high base effect, easing commodity and energy markets, and a stable currency, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Investors also drew strength from Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmed's statement that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves surged to cover two months' worth of imports after the receipt of the first tranche from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 37-month loan deal under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

In much-needed support for the country’s fiscally-challenged economy, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) received the first tranche of $1.03 billion (SDR 760 million) on Monday, September 30, 2024.

Pakistan had been working on implementing conditions deemed "strict" to complete the loan programme agreed to in July, which Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif time and again hoped would be Pakistan's last.

The liquid reserves now stand at $10 billion, providing much-needed stability to the country’s foreign exchange position.

“The foreign exchange reserves have stabilised, and we expect further improvements,” Ahmed said speaking at a banking conference.

"[Overseas workers'] remittances have increased, and the supply of dollars has improved," said Ahmed, noting that a decline in inflation has positively impacted monetary policy.

Meanwhile, world stocks dipped as European and Asian share indexes broadly retreated on Thursday, while oil prices rose further as markets weighed the risk of a widening Middle East conflict.

Euro zone stocks were last down 0.8%, as investors digested weak business activity survey data from the bloc, while MSCI's all-country index also slipped 0.2%.

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, had earlier shed 1%, largely driven by Hong Kong stocks, sagging after a sizzling rally, while several markets, including mainland China and South Korea, were closed for the day.

Japan's Nikkei bucked the trend, up 2% after the country's newly elected prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said it was not the time to raise rates after meeting the central bank governor Kazuo Ueda.

This is a developing story and is being updated with more details.