Eyeing US election, China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years

China is considering approving next week the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further bolstered if Donald Trump wins the US election, said two sources with knowledge of the matter.

China's top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), is looking to approve the fresh fiscal package, including 6 trillion yuan which would partly be raised via special sovereign bonds, on the last day of a meeting to be held from November 4 to 8, said the sources.

The 6-trillion-yuan worth of debt would be raised over three years including 2024, said the sources, adding the proceeds would primarily be used to help local governments address off the books debt risks.

The planned total amount, to be raised by issuing both special treasury and local government bonds, equates to over 8% of the output of the world's second-largest economy, which has been hit hard by a protracted property sector crisis and ballooning debt of local governments.

Reuters is confirming for the first time that the Chinese authorities are contemplating approving the 10-trillion-yuan stimulus package, an amount that financial analysts have said in recent weeks they expect Beijing to consider.

The spending plans suggest that Beijing has switched into a higher stimulus gear to prop up the economy although it's still not the 2008-like bazooka that some investors have been calling for.

The central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the COVID-19 pandemic. The government followed up weeks later by flagging more fiscal stimulus without specifying financial details of the package, stoking intense speculation in global markets about the size of the new spending.

The sources who have knowledge of the matter declined to be named due to confidentiality constraints.

The State Council Information Office and the news department of the NPC Standing Committee did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

The sources cautioned that the plans are not finalised yet and remain subject to changes.

"The current policy priorities appear to focus first on addressing local government hidden debt, followed by financial system stability, and then on supporting domestic demand," said Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC Bank.

China's top legislative body generally holds its meeting every two months in the second half of even-numbered months. As per the parliament's 2024 work agenda, released in May, a standing committee session was planned for October.

The forthcoming meeting was initially planned for late October before being rescheduled to early November, said one of the sources.

The meeting's timing, which coincides with the week of the US presidential vote on November 5, offers Beijing greater flexibility to adjust the fiscal package including the total size, based on the election outcome, said the sources.

Beijing may announce a stronger fiscal package if Trump wins a second presidency as his return to the White House is expected intensify the economic headwinds for China, the two sources said.

Republican candidate Trump has gained in recent polls to erase much of the early advantage of his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has vowed to impose 60% duties on imports from China.

Stimulus initiatives

As part of its latest fiscal package, the NPC Standing Committee is also expected to green light all or part of up to 4 trillion yuan worth of special-purpose bonds for idle land and property purchases over the next five years, said the sources.

Local governments would be allowed to raise that amount on top of their usual annual issuance quota, which mainly funds infrastructure spending. The quota stood at 3.9 trillion yuan this year and 3.8 trillion in 2023.

The latest move is aimed at enhancing local governments' ability to manage land supply, and alleviate liquidity and debt pressures on both local governments and property developers, they added.

Special-purpose bonds are a tool for off-budget debt financing used by Chinese local governments, with the proceeds raised typically earmarked for specific policy objectives, such as infrastructure expenditures.

Should the NPC Standing Committee approve these issuance in full instead of in stages, it could increase the total stimulus size to over 10 trillion yuan, they added. An average of 2 trillion yuan in new central government debt annually underscores an urgency in Beijing to shore up the economy.

Late in 2023, China issued 1 trillion yuan in sovereign bonds to bolster flood prevention infrastructure and meet its roughly 5% economic growth target.

Beijing started this year with plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in special sovereign debt already in place, but that sum is widely expected to be increased as growth has been drifting off target and economists said a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.

All the same, the planned fiscal spending falls short of the firepower deployed in 2008, when Beijing's 4 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus in response to the global financial crisis accounted for 13% of GDP at the time.

The extra money fuelled a property market frenzy and led to unfettered lending to local government financing vehicles, which municipalities used to get around official borrowing restrictions.

As part of the overall fiscal spending, China is also considering approving other stimulus initiatives worth at least one trillion yuan, such as a consumption boost including trade-in and renewal of consumer goods, said the sources.

Another trillion yuan could also be raised via special treasury bonds for capital injection into large state banks, said one of the sources and another source with knowledge of the matter.

"Significant fiscal stimulus should buoy confidence and support economic growth," said Louis Kumis, S&P Global's Chief Asia Economist in Hong Kong.

"It seems support for consumption remains modest. That means it remains unlikely that we will see a substantial improvement of the economic growth outlook or that deflation risks have been vanquished."