Massive profit-taking caps gains after stocks leap past 99,600 mark

• Inflation drop, interest rate cut hopes drive rally.
• Liquidity inflows from mutual funds fuel gains.
• November 24 protest heightens uncertainty.

Stocks on Friday closed with modest gains after a dramatic leap during the day trade, surging past the 99,600 mark, as politics-wary investors cashed in massive profits in the latter half by shedding overbought stocks like there's no tomorrow.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Shares Index could secure only 469.84 points or 0.48% after an ongoing economic optimism-driven rally tossed the stocks to a day high of 99,623.03 points.

Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, told Geo.tv that the market is in continuous positive momentum.

The primary reasons behind this, he said, are the economic indicators, improvement of macros, plus the expectation that the inflation number will be around 4.5% this month. Then, Abbas added, there was an expectation that interest rates would be cut further next month.

The analyst also noted the key role of liquidity in driving the market’s growth, saying: "Apart from that, local liquidity is very robust. Money is coming into the market continuously from different sets of investors."

Increased liquidity from mutual funds, banks, and insurance companies has further fueled the rally, with market experts pointing to surging foreign exchange reserves, positive current account data, and privatisation hopes as catalysts for growth.

Across-the-board buying was observed in key sectors including automobile assemblers, commercial banks, fertiliser, oil and gas exploration companies, and power generation.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), increased by $29 million to $11.29 billion, marking a 31-month high.

Total liquid foreign reserves reached $15.97 billion. The Pakistani rupee appreciated 0.11% on Friday, closing at Rs277.96 a dollar in the inter-bank market.

Arif Habib Limited in its market wrap said the PSX achieved another milestone as market activity surged to a 7.5-year high, with a traded value of Rs45.5 billion ($164 million). 

"This marks the highest activity in the regular market since 31-May-17 (MSCI reclassification day)," the brokerage said, adding that excluding that day, it was the highest traded value recorded since April 11, 2008 — nearly 17 years ago.

Market sentiment is buoyed by inflation dropping to levels unseen since 2022. Expectations of an interest rate cut next month are drawing investors from fixed-income securities to equities, contributing to the PSX’s robust growth.

Despite the consistent upward trajectory, analysts maintain that PSX valuations remain attractive, signaling further room for growth.

Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, noted that the market’s recent decline from 2017-23 was largely due to political uncertainty.

However, he added: “With inflation and interest rates declining and Pakistan’s IMF relationship stabilising, economic recovery is strengthening investor confidence. If political protests remain peaceful, the index could cross 100,000 points soon and potentially exceed 127,000 by 2025.”

The political backdrop has been tense, with the main opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf planning a major protest in Islamabad on November 24.

The protest, labelled as a “do-or-die” demonstration, has heightened political uncertainty, further fueled by the government’s strong warnings of strict action against any unrest.

Meanwhile, security concerns and increased militant activity in the northwestern regions have added to the unease, creating a challenging environment for investors.

In the previous session, the PSX’s benchmark KSE-100 index surged by 1,781.94 points, or 1.86%, to close at an all-time high of 97,328.39 points.