Lahore, a city struggling to breathe

For the past few years, starting from the end of October, Lahore — a city once known for its gardens and festivities — turns into the city of smog. Schools are closed, outdoor activities are banned, and breathing becomes a hassle. Even though the city’s air quality index remains mostly unhealthy throughout the year, it only seems to be under discussion during the smog season.

Smog, which officials still mostly consider a seasonal problem, is attributed mainly to farmers burning crops on both sides of the Pakistan-India border and wind direction. Once the season of smog is over, air quality becomes an almost irrelevant issue once again, until it rears its ugly head again the next year.

Even though one can still feel the smoke in Lahore’s air and its citizens continue to suffer from various health conditions as a result, almost all smog-related restrictions have been lifted and life seems to be pretty much back to normal.

Smog and air quality index. Does the difference matter?

According to Naseem-ur-Rehman, former director of the Punjab Environment Protection authority and former secretary environment commission, when the air quality index rises or fog appears, it is labelled smog.

"However, fog is not smog, and an increase in the Air Quality Index is not smog either. Yes, pollution levels do rise for various reasons, but smog is a specific term that becomes noticeable when you feel irritation in your eyes," he said speaking with Geo News.

Rehman explained that smog was first observed on November 6, 2017. It occurred again on November 2, 2018, and then on November 6, 2019. But the worst year was 2021, when it occurred intermittently from October 15 to February. However, it didn't occur in 2022 or 2023, but has reappeared in 2024.

He insisted that fog patterns have changed over the years. From December to January, it has now shifted to early November, which coincides with the peak time for stubble burning in Pakistan and India, further intensifying the issue of smog.

Punjab Environment Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb in a recent interview admitted that Lahore's overall AQI is an issue but smog may continue as it is a seasonal problem.

However, environmental lawyer and activist Rafay Alam disagreed. In an interview to Geo News, he said that treating smog as a seasonal issue has been a major flaw in the government's approach. "While cooler temperatures and crop burning in the autumn exacerbate pollution, the same amount of pollution is being released in the atmosphere through transport, industries, energy, and other means across the year".

Lahore's struggle with vehicular pollution and growth

The Urban Unit Lahore's 2022 Emission Inventory of Lahore, quoted in the Punjab Government's Smog Mitigation Plan, highlights that vehicles are responsible for 83.15% of emissions in Lahore's air, while waste burning contributes only 3.6%.

Vehicles being a major pollutant was confirmed by the preliminary carbon monoxide survey in Lahore by EPA Punjab way back in 1990. Punjab’s first environment law came into effect in 1997 that aimed to control vehicular and industrial pollution, among other issues.

In the same year Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, then an advocate, filed a petition in the Lahore High Court claiming that 90% of Lahore's pollution is due to vehicles and is causing serious health risks to its citizens. Another petition was filed by Saima Amin Khwaja and others in the year 2000. But it wasn't until 2003 that a decision was taken on the petitions and Lahore Clean Air Commission was formed. The commission was headed by environment lawyer and head of both the Lahore Clean Air and Smog Commissions, Dr Pervaiz Hassan, and submitted its report in 2005.

To understand the extent of the problem around air pollution in Lahore, let us take a look at the city's vehicular and population growth in the years above when the surveys were done, petitions were filed and reports came out.

Between 2000 to 2005, the number of vehicles more than doubled with a rapid increase in motorcycle/scooters from 327,428 in 2000 to a whopping 702,485. Since 2000, Lahore’s population has increased by nearly 128%, and the vehicles have increased by a massive 1031%.

According to The Urban Unit's report on emissions in Lahore, motorcycles and scooters (two-stroke vehicles) have the highest emissions (104.76 Gg), followed by motor cars, jeeps, and wagons (16.34 Gg). The number of motorcycles and scooters over the last 24 years has gone up to 4.8 million from 327,428 in 2000.

If vehicles, Alam said, remain the top contributor to air pollution, focus should have been to encourage public transport. "Instead we have built under passes, overhead bridges and signal free lanes, all of which encourage private transport."

Rehman, however, had a different take on the subject. According to him when there is congestion or traffic jam, emissions are higher; therefore, for smooth flow of traffic, infrastructure has to be built. "People often claim that vehicular pollution is the main cause of smog, but I always oppose this idea. If that were true, Tokyo, with four times the traffic of Lahore, would have a worse AQI. Yet their AQI is around 25-30 because they have built state of the art infrastructure."

Dr Hassan told Geo News that in order to reduce the number of vehicles on roads, all schools with over 300 students should be asked to arrange school buses. "Schools can also force parents to car pool. Big schools can come up with policy that no car would be allowed to enter if there are less than three children present."

He also maintained that banning cars with certain numbers on particular days can also reduce traffic. Dr Hassaan admitted it would be a difficult task, but believes that people are very resilient and in a time of crisis they rise. "There may be resistance in the beginning but if a decision is implemented they would find ways to share rides with others."

Outcome of Lahore Clean Air Commission report

The Lahore Clean Air Commission report highlighted the need for a comprehensive set of Ambient Air Quality Standards, air quality monitoring, management to bring all pollutants within ambient standards, adoption of Euro emission standards and cleaner fuels for private vehicles, as well as public transport, phasing out of two stroke rickshaws within a year.

Two and three wheelers in Lahore were recommended to be Euro III compliant by 2010, cars Euro III by 2010 and Euro IV by 2013, whereas buses Euro II compliant by 2008 and Euro III by 2010. The report also asked for maintenance, inspection and certification of private and public vehicles, planning for improved and increased public transport and retiring of buses older than ten years, as well as capacity building of state institutions to fight pollution.

Rehman told Geo News that the report covered all aspects related to vehicles and associated issues. "If someone questions the implementation, let me clarify that this policy was fully implemented to the extent of converting two-stroke rickshaws to four-stroke and manufacturing of buses and cars, currently no manufacturer deviates from the standards set by the Lahore Clean Air Commission, except for tractors."

Further sharing his views on the report, he said it was concluded that the issue was with the engine technology rather than the diesel fuel itself, the problem lay in combustion efficiency, engines that burn fuel efficiently produce less emissions. At the Lahore Clean Air Commission, the department's understanding was that EURO-2 standard diesel engines produce emissions comparable to compressed natural gas (CNG).

One cannot deny the work done in replacing two-stroke rickshaws but they could not be completely eliminated. Moving to Euro III and IV standards for vehicles by 2013 also remained unfulfilled, old and smoke emitting vehicles also continue to run on the roads of Lahore.

According to Rehman, the manufacturers were pressurised to move to Euro III and Euro IV but they refused as the fuel available did not match the requirements of vehicles designed for EURO-3 and Euro-IV standards. He added that due to our economic condition, banning of old vehicles is not possible. He particularly referred to locally made trucks and said several families generate their livelihood from one truck, until government can provide them an alternate, banning them would be catastrophic.

Even though the Punjab Environmental Protection (Motor Vehicles) Rules were notified in December 2013, to catch smoke emitting vehicles and even impounding them, the implementation remained a problem.

Dirty oil and problem with upgradation of refineries

For decades, there has been a lot of discussion on upgrading refineries in Pakistan, but little was achieved in this regard, as our refineries continue to produce poor quality fuel contributing to more emissions.

Lawyer Alam said that the refineries in Pakistan produce EURO-II grade fuel, one of the dirtiest standards globally. "In 2020, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government directed that the fuel imported into Pakistan should meet the Euro-IV standard and there's no regulation in Pakistan to enforce this. Petrol arrives in Karachi, is stored in tanks, and mixed with other substances before reaching stations."

Rehman cited financial reasons for the failure to upgrade refineries. Billions of dollars were required to upgrade the refineries, while we struggle a lot to get a loan of $ 1 billion from IMF, he said.

Alam also pointed out that during the government of former president and army chief Pervez Musharraf, discussions were held about upgrading refineries. "The refineries were given permission to collect a small tax (deemed duty) from the public, included in the price of fuel. The idea was that over ten years, this tax would accumulate enough funds to upgrade the country’s refineries."

He added that a case was filed in the high court in 2018, questioning what had happened to the funds. "No one seemed to know where the funds went and the case never gets scheduled for a hearing."

The issue of refinery upgradation remained a major controversy, with the Petroleum Ministry, in 2021, claiming that refineries had collected Rs200 billion in duties for advancement. However, the refineries remain outdated, and the Brownfield Refineries Policy upgrade plans are stalled due to a tax dispute. In November, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) recommended reducing the deemed duty on high-speed diesel (HSD) for refineries that don’t sign upgrade agreements.

Smog policies and smog commission report

It was in 2017 that the first policy to control smog was formulated, the policy talked about both the short- and long-term measures that included better fuel, improved engine technology, controlling burning of waste and crop, planned urbanisation and industrialisation, controlling fugitive dust, creation of woodland in and around big cities, among other issues.

This was seven years ago, during which a detailed smog commission report came out in 2018 following court's orders and almost every year some policy or the other is devised to fight smog. The governments have been mostly focused on short term measures, either blaming farmers and acting against them or the brick kilns as well as fining vehicles and industries.

Is smog a farmers' problem?

Apart from the shifting of the fog season, the burning of stubble by farmers has been considered the biggest factor in the appearance of smoke in the region. Yet, it only contributes less than 4% to the emissions, which can be resolved with proper machinery.

In the past, farmers didn’t have to burn the residue of crops because harvesting was done manually. Later, they started using wheat harvesters, which did not pull out the roots; therefore, burning became necessary to prepare the land for next crop.

The issue, according to Rehman, was discussed with the agricultural department several times, suggesting a ban on these wheat harvesters. The Agricultural Department recommended providing farmers with a "super seeder", a machine that removes stubble. This year, the government finally approved 5,000 units, of which 1,000 have already been distributed, but the entire area has yet to be covered.

Rehman spoke of another alternative, the "Kubota" machine, which is effective but costs Rs15,000 per acre, compared to the wheat harvester's cost of Rs8,000. This additional cost is unaffordable for small-scale farmers. The government, the former EPA director suggested, should subsidise the difference or ensure access to affordable machines like the super seeder to solve the issue.

How brick kilns impact environment?

Brick Kilns are seen as another major source of Lahore’s air pollution. According to the 2015 report of the Census of Manufacturing Industries in Punjab, at least 230 brick kilns existed in the Lahore district.

Dr Hassan mentioned that the only real success he has seen over the past 20 years is the brick kilns and their conversion to zig zag technology. He said that it saddening to learn that the government is demolishing brick kilns, as it takes away livelihood. Such moves are short sighted and for appearance only, added Dr Hassan.

Ironically in May 2021, special assistant to the prime minister on climate change Malik Amin Aslam was jubilant that all brick kilns in Punjab have been converted to zig zag technology, yet the recent demolition of hundreds tells a different story.

Right vs wrong AQI

There has been a debate about air quality readings in Lahore as well, where there seems to be a lack of trust on government's part in private monitors.

Back in November 2021, then Punjab Environment Minister Bao Muhammad Rizwan questioned the AQI readings and urged action by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA). He believed that "unscrupulous elements with malafide intention" were trying to damage the country's image during smog season by reporting a misleading and false reading of the Air Quality Index (AQI) from different unauthorised sources in Lahore".

Alam told Geo News that the Punjab government has, for years, denied air pollution as a significant problem and deliberately misled the public.

"The 2017 Smog Policy introduced by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government, led the EPD to reclassify the AQI intensity levels. Internationally, the United States' EPA's standards are followed, which classify the AQI from 0-50 as acceptable, 51-100 as moderate, and so on. However, in 2018, Pakistan’s EPA changed the classification to every 100 AQI (0-100 considered good, 101-200 moderate, and so on.)."

Former EPA director Rehman felt the unceremoniously higher AQIs in Lahore this year needs to be investigated. He added that the gadgets used, whether of environment department or private, need to be checked to understand whether they are properly calibrated or not.

"Following proper SOPs to take data is another issue, to get accurate data the monitors have to be placed at a certain distance from earth and the source. People place censors near the source, which gives wrong data."

Were the governments sleeping over pollution?

We reached out to Zakia Shahnawaz, the last environment minister during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's 10-year rule over Lahore as the chief minister, to find out about the seriousness of the provincial government in handling the issue. To no surprise, most of the efforts she mentioned were related to the smog season only.

"Smog and pollution were a priority for our government, we introduced zig zag technology for brick kilns, we tried to reduce emission by fining the vehicles not meeting the standards, as well as tried to stop them from coming on road," she said, adding that the government also banned factories using poor quality fuel during the smog season.

Shahnawaz added that the factories working on coal to use filters to reduce emissions, as they could not close them. They also planned to introduce right machinery for farmers for crop cutting; now, the current government has decided to implement it by giving the machinery to farmers either on rent or installments.

The former minister admitted that when she became minister, there were only four air quality monitoring gadgets and not all of them were functioning. "We had them repaired and imported some as well."

In early November 2024, only three monitors were operational in Lahore according to Punjab Environment Protection Department.

Shahnawaz admitted that even though there are relevant departments and then provincial government made all necessary laws, strong implementation and consistency are needed. If they had 10 years they would have controlled it, she added. She was supposedly referring to smog, not air quality as premier Shehbaz's reign in Punjab lasted no less than 10 years.

The ex-minister also mentioned that their government got a $200 million project approved by the World Bank to tackle smog towards the end of their rule in the province.

This revelation led us to speak with former environment minister Rizwan, who led the ministry during the Usman Buzdar government under PTI's reign. The minister told Geo News that even though their government wanted to improve the issue they could not do much.

"The environment department lacks proper laws, they had to create guidelines for consultants, as well as penalty rules for factories working without NOCs but efforts to finalise guidelines and penalties were blocked by influential stakeholders. Despite these challenges, they managed to reduce illegal activities," he said.

Referring to the World Bank-backed Green Punjab Project, Rizwan said that he tried his best because it was an excellent project, but the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) was very active and many government officials were under scrutiny. Everyone was afraid of signing documents, fearing they might be targeted later hence financial matters couldn't be addressed as effectively as they should have been.

On the World Bank’s website, a moderately satisfactory rating of the Green Punjab Project suggests that the project is running slow in meeting some targets.

What is missing from the government’s approach?

Dr Hassan felt there has been a lack of political will to address the issue and in the past, all of the government's efforts have been short-term.

Alam, on the other hand, insisted that the country needs a long-term, data-driven approach to tackle air pollution. Policies need to be grounded in scientific research and real-time data on pollution sources, not just based on political expediency or public pressure. Solutions need to address every sector contributing to air pollution, from vehicles to industries to energy production, through regulatory measures and sustained investment.

Interestingly, according to an unpublished report from the World Bank, 20% of Lahore's air pollution is rooted in indoor sources such as cooking stoves, gas emissions and other household pollutants. This emphasises the need for a comprehensive approach that addresses not just outdoor pollution but also indoor air quality, which remains largely ignored.

The former EPA director, however, does not see political will as a problem, according to him lack of resources is the major issue.

"Last year, a Chinese delegation came to Lahore, we met them to discuss how they fought pollution in Beijing, as we wanted to do the same in Lahore. They started laughing and said we spent $ 100 billion in 7 years to control pollution in the city," he told Geo News.

He further pointed out that dust is a bigger issue in Lahore compared to other pollutants. The situation will not improve until the issue is resolved.

"The smog in 2017 and this year was mostly dusty. Poorly maintained roads in industrial areas like Mahmood Booti, Batti Chowk, and Badami Bagh contribute significantly to pollution, when we enforce factory closures, you won’t see smoke coming from the factories, but a single truck passing through stirs up a cloud of dust," said Rehman, adding that addressing the issue requires better infrastructure, which means "a lot of money".

Did PML-N fail Lahore?

Pakistan does not possess the money that China does, but that does not mean the country cannot take measures like strict implementation of laws, giving proper machinery to farmers, shifting brick kilns to zigzag technology, improving public transport, checking the quality of fuels, and educating the masses.

In a recent interview on a social media channel, Aurangzeb stated that the government didn’t have clamping and impounding mechanisms nor the equipment for checking fuel quality or vehicle certification systems.

Geo News reached out to the minister to ask how can the PML-N be absolved from the responsibility for the current crisis, as it ruled the province for 10 continuous years (2008 to 2018).

In her written response to the query, she said: "It is important to acknowledge the complexities that come with tackling pollution, especially in a city like Lahore, which has faced growing environmental challenges for years. PMLN worked to improve public transport through the Lahore Metro and Orange line, which contributed to reducing GHG and Carbon emissions. We also notified Punjab Environment Protection Rules 2013."

Aurangzeb, however, admitted that had more decisive steps been taken earlier, the situation could have been less dire. However, the challenges are complex and require long-term, sustained efforts across multiple sectors to effectively mitigate the damage.

Looking at the future with regards to the problem, she mentioned that Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz has spearheaded a comprehensive Smog Mitigation Plan. This plan incorporates both short-term measures and long-term strategies to significantly reduce air pollution across Punjab.

Smog Mitigation Plan 2024-25

The Smog Mitigation Plan involves agriculture, transport, environment, industrial, energy, education and health sectors. It focuses on transitioning to greener mass transit, using drones and thermal technologies for emissions monitoring, enforcing fines, and improving fuel quality. The plan also aims to regulate motorbikes, a major source of pollution in Lahore, introduce Vehicle Inspection and Certification System (VICS) criteria, and establish new industrial zones with stricter factory regulations.

When asked how the government plans to measure progress on the plan, Aurangzeb replied: "We have a comprehensive 10-year plan to improve air quality in Lahore, with measurable short-, medium-, and long-term goals. Progress will be tracked using expanded air quality monitoring systems, annual emissions inventories, health impact metrics, and audits of policy interventions.

"Targets include a reduction in PM2.5 levels through stricter vehicle emission controls and cleaner technologies and a decrease in smog episodes through sustainable agricultural practices and industrial compliance."

She added that the policy emphasises cleaner transport, urban greening, and a transition to low-carbon operations, positioning Lahore as a model for air quality improvement in Punjab.

Will the smog issue ever get resolved? 

As rightly pointed out by experts and politicians alike there is no short-term solution to the air quality problem. We have wasted too much time, our failure to make long-term policies, as well as our failure to implement laws has led us to a situation where breathing has become a privilege.

One can only hope that 10 years from now, we will not be lamenting further waste of time, and if nothing more, however flawed, at least the big plans announced today would have been implemented. Lahoris like everyone else, deserve to enjoy their outdoor season to the fullest.

Aurangzeb, the environment minister, also spoke about about the Green Master Plan for Lahore District, led by the Parks and Horticulture Authority. At least 4.8 million trees have already been planted in the city, as per government claims, and a Management Information System (MIS) and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based dashboard has been developed, enabling the geo-tagging of all planted trees across Punjab. The plan also includes the creation of a Green Ring, which will enhance Lahore's green cover, the government is aiming to achieve the international standard of over 30% green area.

Only if, but one can always hope.

Nadia S Malik is senior executive producer and head of Geo News Election and Research Cell.

Momna Tahir is associate producer at Geo News Election and Research Cell.

Header and thumbnail illustration by Geo.tv