Challenges for an ambitious Trump

Donald Trump seems to be determined to make America great again and for this, he is likely to come up with an ambitious plan. But many believe that such a plan will not be without challenges. His entry into the White House is going to be stormy. His comrades have already hinted at carrying out drastic changes which also include disturbing the rule-based system which emerged in the aftermath of World War Two.

Critics claim American greatness lies in the system introduced by Washington and its Western allies. Free market economy, liberalisation, deregulation, privatisation, democracy and protection of human rights were some of the important components of this system. In addition to that, the role of the UN and its sister organisations was also crucial in strengthening the system that ensured American hegemony in several parts of the world.

Critics fear that Trump's rhetoric seems to be harming this system and if it is translated into reality, it would end up greatly undermining the system. For instance, if he really slaps China and Washington’s Western allies with tariffs and duties, it will trigger a political earthquake in several capitals of the world that will take retaliatory measures. Such measures will deprive Americans of cheap Chinese goods besides straining Washington’s ties with its traditional Western allies who might look to Beijing and other states for support. Such a situation will badly damage the US's position as a global leader.

Trump’s proposed tariff regime is also likely to affect American companies that have already heavily invested in China. Such companies have been thriving by selling their products not only in the Chinese market but in other markets of the region as well. If Trump goes ahead with his tariff rigidity then it is going to badly damage American business interests, which could deal a severe blow to the very vested interests that the Republican leader represents.

Trump has also pledged to revitalise the economy. Mass production of consumer and other goods could be one of the tools helping the US achieve this. But many believe the country can no longer produce cheap goods like Communist China. It is estimated tens of thousands of industries had to be shut down in the US after China joined the World Trade Organisation. During his last administration, Trump came up with several policies to persuade American businesses to stay in the country and strengthen the manufacturing sector but capital has its own rules for movement and flow: it would start moving in the direction where it can reap more profits.

What the Republican leader ignores is the lust for profit. During the decade of the 1980s, such profit existed in China, so it moved in that direction. American capitalists heavily invested there, starting with the assembling plants and later setting up manufacturing units. Now such US entities can get far more profits in India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other states, so why would they bother to return to their motherland? Therefore, it will be an uphill task for Trump to prevail upon such reluctant American businessmen.

As mentioned earlier, this revitalisation of the economy could be possible if the US manages to produce goods on a massive scale because mass production could enable a country to produce goods at an extremely low price. During and after World War I and World War II, the US was able to carry out industrial production at an epic scale because the two terrible conflicts had left a trail of destruction across Europe and other parts of the world. The US was not only producing for its local market of more than 200 million but that of Europe, Japan, South Korea and other places as well. This gave a tremendous boost to the US manufacturing sector with the country contributing more than 45% to the global economy in 1945.

Now, the US does not have an European market at its disposal. All Western countries across the Atlantic are capable of producing several consumer goods themselves. They are not reliant on the US as they were during and after the two conflicts of the 20th century. Currently, it is only states with mammoth populations like India and China that can produce consumer and other goods on a mass scale which helps them offer such goods at an extremely low rate. In addition to that, American labour costs are also much higher than that of China and India.

Trump has also indicated that he would put an end to the Ukrainian conflict, which is likely to deal a severe blow to the American economy. The conflict has provided American arms manufacturers an opportunity to increase production. The conflict also prompted European states to increase their defence budgets, forcing Nato members to purchase weapons from the US, which is the largest manufacturer and supplier of arms in the world. 

So, the cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine is likely to spell a disaster for American arms manufacturers which would also affect the manufacturing sector of the US economy

With the end of such hostilities, Trump might face another challenge. If his administration makes efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict, there could be tremendous pressure on Washington to snuff out the flames of conflict in the Middle East as well though it will be very difficult for Trump and his tedious acolytes to prevent the region from plunging into a quagmire of a new conflict. If his administration does try to halt any new conflict in the Middle East, this could strain ties and deprive Trump of crucial support.

Trump has also hinted at weakening the military-industrial complex that has been dominating the political landscape of the country since World War II. On January 17, 1961, in his farewell address, President Dwight Eisenhower warned: “We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex." Despite his warning, the complex was not only established but it is believed to be calling shots behind the curtain in several matters of governance, especially those related to foreign policy, conflicts and wars. John F Kennedy tried to reign in these elements and was assassinated.

Mainstream media is also on Trump's target list but what he tends to forget is the bitter fact that such a powerful entity could greatly destabilise his government. Like all American governments, his administration is also likely to be stuffed with vested interests who would be under the watch of this vibrant media. Any wrongdoing on their part could provide an opportunity for anti-Trump media barons to settle their scores with the outspoken Republican leader. So, giving them a tough time will not be an easy task.

Immigrants, Muslims and other marginalised sections of society are also likely to be targeted by the Republican president. So, it seems that Trump is likely to create several enemies. Kennedy picked a fight with the deep state and did not survive. Roosevelt challenged the powerful business lobby but survived by extending relief packages to ordinary Americans. But Trump is no Roosevelt. So, how will he face a myriad of challenges? Let's wait and see.

The writer is a freelance journalist who can be reached at: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News