Trump 2.0: Is uncertainty ahead for Pakistan-US ties?

As the sun sets on Joe Biden's rickety presidency and Donald Trump takes the helm, a hush looms over a stormy horizon of challenges for Pakistan, which must ensure its foreign policies are right on the money under the reign of the mercurial leader.

Although Pakistan is not new to the Trump administration, the regional and global circumstances have undergone significant changes in recent years.

Islamabad and Washington established diplomatic relations on August 15 1947, making the US one of the first two nations to recognise Pakistan.

Despite the ups and downs in their relationship, the US remains a critical partner for Pakistan particularly in the areas of security and counterterrorism.

The ties between the two countries have largely been transactional, defined by the pursuit of strategic interests during the Afghan war, the Cold War and the so-called War on Terror.

However inconsistent ties between the two nations were further compounded after Pakistan joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — seen as a direct threat to the US hegemony— and the chaotic end of its war in Afghanistan.

Lately, it is speculated that PTI supporters lobbying with the US for the release of jailed PTI founder Imran Khan may lead to another challenge for Pakistan under the Trump administration.

However, some experts argue that Pakistan is no longer a priority for US policymakers following the end of the Afghan war.

'Benign disengagement'

Speaking during a webinar hosted by Asia Society Policy Institute, Dr Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistan's ambassador to the US, described the relations between Washington and Islamabad in recent years as a "process of benign disengagement".

Beyond Pakistan's support for the US evacuation efforts in Afghanistan, the former ambassador said no major progress was witnessed in the ties in the wake of the US pullout.

She said the low-level diplomatic engagement between the Biden administration and Pakistan was because US Secretary of State Antony Blinken never visited Pakistan during the entire term of the former president.

Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes that after the end of the Afghan war and the return of the Taliban rulers Pakistan is no longer a diplomatic priority for the US.

"That will continue to hold true for the incoming Trump administration," she told Geo.tv.

Afzal adds that Trump has been vocal about his foreign policy goals and priorities since the election, but he has not mentioned Pakistan at all.

"That can be seen as a signal that Pakistan is not on the front burner for him."

On the contrary, Micheal Kugelman, a Washington-based expert on South Asian affairs, expects a "fair amount of continuity" in the bilateral ties despite the change in US leadership.

"However, the relationship with Pakistan may not be a priority for the Trump administration aside from some continuing cooperation on trade and ongoing projects sponsored by State [Department] and USAID," Kugelman said in a conversation with Geo.tv.

On the level of interaction between the states, Kugelman anticipates the Trump administration to involve in limited discussion on counterterrorism especially if they conclude that IS-KP or Daesh continues to pose a threat well beyond Afghanistan.

He also fears detrimental implications for bilateral relations if the Trump administration decides to cut funding to key US government agencies for development and humanitarian assistance.

'Khan factor'

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is hopeful that Trump would call for the release of his "good friend", the jailed party founder Imran Khan, as the two leaders met twice and enjoyed good rapport when the latter was in power.

In a brief X post, Khan, imprisoned in Rawalpindi's Adiala jail, also congratulated Trump on his election victory.

"President-elect Trump will be good for Pakistan-US relations based on mutual respect for democracy and human rights. We hope he will push for peace, human rights, and democracy globally," read a message posted on his official X handle.

Lending credence to the PTI supporters' hopes, President Trump's aide Richard Grenell jumped on the bandwagon, calling for the release of Khan.

Grenell, former envoy and Trump's nominee as envoy for special missions, also engaged in an X spat with Pakistan ruling parties' members and criticised Biden regime's policies towards Pakistan.

"Grenell may be a bit of a wild card in this equation, but at this point, one can presume that his effect on foreign policy is likely to be marginal," said Afzal when asked if the Trump administration can use its influence for Khan's release.

She said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz would be the major players in the cabinet and in terms of Trump’s aides on foreign policy.

However, Kugelman sees Trump simply posting a message on X and expressing support with the former premier.

"It is unlikely for Trump to implement a policy focused on pressuring Pakistan to release the PTI founder," he said.

As per Kugelman, setting aside the issue of potential success in the past, US pressure has often failed to get Pakistan, including the military, to do what the US wants.

Calling Trump a "supremely transactional leader", the American foreign policy expert questioned: "What would he and US interests get out of a policy meant to free a jailed opposition leader in another country?"

US-China rivalry

Amid growing US-China rivalry, Pakistan has long maintained it will not become a part of bloc politics and has tried to strike a balance in its ties with the two major world powers.

The US has time and again warned Pakistan that Chinese investment via the BRI-linked China-Pakistan Economic Forum (CPEC) project is a "debt trap".

However, both Islamabad and Beijing dismiss the US allegations, highlighting the economic and social benefits of the multibillion-dollar project.

Kugelman suggested that Pakistan can help its cause on the China front by encouraging US infrastructure investment in Pakistan.

"The Trump administration may be interested in using the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) as a tool to counter Chinese investments," he added.

However, the expert cautioned that growing military cooperation, including on long-range missile development, with Beijing might not sit well with the US.

On the other hand, Dr Lodhi expects the Trump government to look at rest of the South Asia through the lens of two regional powers, China and India.

"Washington is no longer a strategic priority for Pakistan as it is China that meets Islamabad's defence and economic interests in a way that the US simply cannot.

"The US has made its strategic choice, which is India and Pakistan has made its strategic choice, which is China," she added.

'Big challenge'

Although Pakistan may not be a priority for the US, the new president's cabinet picks for key slots might worry Islamabad.

Rubio, Trump's choice for secretary of state, in July this year introduced an anti-Pakistan bill in Congress, pledging to help India combat China's growing influence and address alleged threats from Pakistan.

Likewise, Trump's national security adviser nominee Mike Waltz has been a leading critic of China.

A Trump loyalist, who also served in the National Guard as a colonel, Waltz, 50, has criticised Chinese military activity in the Asia-Pacific and voiced the need for the US to be ready for a potential conflict in the region.

Waltz will be responsible for briefing Trump on key national security issues and coordinating with different agencies.

However, US-based scholar Afzal said the Trump team's China and India views are notable, but they will not define the bilateral relationship between Islamabad and Washington.

"It is, at this point, Pakistan's intrinsic lack of priority for the US that defines it [the ties]," she added.

Kugelman says Trump's cabinet choices on the whole are a big challenge for US-Pakistan ties. All the foreign policy-focused nominees, including Rubio, Waltz, and Pete Hegseth (the nominee for defence secretary), are among Washington's strongest champions of India and harshest critics of Pakistan.

"If you're Pakistan, trying to ensure you get some positive attention in Washington during the second Trump administration, that’s not what you want," he remarked.

Former top diplomat Lodhi, in her webinar address, suggested that Pakistani policymakers explore opportunities to forge a relationship with the US amidst these challenges.

She said Washington’s ties with New Delhi, its policy of containing Beijing and strategic ties with Islamabad would emerge as "structural constraints" under the Trump administration.

Jahanzaib Yaseen is a staffer at Geo.tv.

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