Climate Risk Index 2025 and Pakistan

The latest Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2025 by Germanwatch, released in February 2025, highlights the escalating impacts of climate change and the urgent need for enhanced resilience measures.

The report assesses data spanning from 1993 to 2022 based on annual average values over 30 years. The Climate Risk Index (CRI), published since 2006, is one of the longest-running annual climate impact-related indices. 

The CRI analyses climate-related extreme weather events' degree of effect on countries. In doing so, it measures the consequences of realised risks on countries.

According to the CRI 2025, countries can be broadly categorised into two groups: those most affected by isolated, unusual extreme events and those facing recurring threats. Notably, China, India, the Philippines and Pakistan fall into the latter category, experiencing continuous climate-related hazards.

The report emphasises that inaction has exacted a severe human and economic toll — over 765,000 lives have been lost worldwide, and direct losses have approached $4.2 trillion (inflation-adjusted) due to more than 9,400 extreme weather events.

In the overall CRI ranking for 1993–2022, Dominica, China and Honduras emerge as the countries most affected by extreme weather. However, the 2022 snapshot paints a particularly grim picture for Pakistan, Belize and Italy. Pakistan, in particular, stands out for its exceptionally high relative economic losses.

During the heavy monsoon season from June to September 2022, Pakistan suffered devastating floods, landslides, and storms that affected more than 33 million people, resulted in over 1,700 fatalities, and caused nearly $15 billion in damage — figures that exclude an estimated $16 billion in reconstruction costs and additional funds necessary for long-term climate adaptation. 

A recent flood impact assessment noted: "The 2022 floods have shown Pakistan's high vulnerability to climate change despite contributing less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions."

The World Bank's October 2022 estimates already highlighted the disaster's scale, with reconstruction costs surpassing $16 billion, marking one of the costliest disasters in recorded history. Climate change has not only intensified monsoon rainfall by an estimated 50% but has also exacerbated social inequities.

In Pakistan, the floods deepened existing gender disparities, impacting women's livelihoods — particularly in agriculture and livestock — and increasing their vulnerability to gender-based violence amid displacement and insecure living conditions. 

Extreme heat events in Pakistan have become up to 30 times more likely, further complicating the climate resilience landscape.

The CRI report frequently draws on scientific data from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report to support its findings. It calls for a reassessment of international resilience-building efforts, emphasising that investments in comprehensive resilience are more critical now than ever.

The implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 — which mandates urgent action to combat climate change — is facing significant challenges, with progress stagnating. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events continue to undermine food and water security, thereby impeding overall SDG achievement.

The report also illuminated the connection between climate change and security. It emphasised that the impacts of climate change pose significant challenges to both individual wellbeing and national cohesion. This climate–security nexus is heavily influenced by the prevailing social, economic, and environmental conditions and can act as a multiplier of threats to peace and security.

The report outlined various mechanisms through which climate change may spur conflict, including shifts in economic conditions, socio-demographic changes, migration patterns, political instability, and psychological pressures. 

In regions marked by ethnic tensions, where exclusion, discrimination and polarisation are prevalent, communities are particularly vulnerable to conflict following extreme events. For instance, marginalised, agriculture-dependent groups in parts of Asia and Africa face an increased risk of conflict due to intensified drought conditions.

It points toward effective governance and risk management frameworks as essentials while emphasising the implementation of the Sendai Framework (2015–2030) by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) which remains a cornerstone in these endeavours. 

Likewise, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) are vital for identifying and addressing countries' specific adaptation needs, while Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) and the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) established under the Paris Agreement can further support global resilience-building efforts.

However, the report highlights how the outlook for resilience finance remains dire. Countries, especially the most vulnerable, urgently require increased financial support. 

COP29's decision on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to mobilise at least $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries has been widely criticised for its lack of ambition and clarity, particularly as it fails to address measures for loss and damage. This shortfall is alarming given the persistent gaps in adaptation finance compared to the actual needs and commitments.

Looking ahead, as it highlights, the IPCC (2022) projects that future human vulnerability will likely concentrate in regions where local and national capacities to provide infrastructure and basic services are weakest. 

Between 1993 and 2022, storms (35%), heatwaves (30%) and floods (27%) were the primary causes of fatalities, with floods affecting half of the impacted population. In economic terms, storms accounted for 56% (approximately $2.33 trillion) of the total losses, followed by floods at 32% (around $1.33 trillion).

The CRI findings make it clear that a lack of ambition in mitigation efforts leaves even high-income countries vulnerable to severe impacts. 

It is in the best interest of both high-income and major emitting countries to intensify mitigation actions, set higher climate targets, and implement robust policies through updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to keep global warming as close as possible to 1.5°C and to manage future climate impacts effectively.

The report offers us insights as a country to improve our climate resilience strategies. By highlighting extreme weather vulnerabilities and associated economic losses, it provides evidence-based guidance for prioritising investments in resilient infrastructure and early warning systems. 

Our policymakers can use these insights to drive targeted adaptation measures, secure international climate finance, and improve disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions across all provinces.

The comprehensive analysis presented in the report can facilitate informed decision-making, enabling the federal and provincial governments to upscale work on mitigating risks, protecting communities, and promoting sustainable development for the nation.

The writer is a climate governance expert. He tweets/posts @razashafqat and can be reached at: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News