How Indo-Pak war was averted after Pakistan's counterstrike, Abhinandan's capture

ISLAMABAD: In February 2019, tension between Pakistan and India escalated to the brink of war, after the Pulwama attack that led to India's Balakot airstrike inside Pakistani territory.

In response, Pakistan launched Operation Swift Retort, shooting down an Indian MiG-21, capturing its pilot Abhinandan Varthaman. As both the nations prepared for potential missile strikes, urgent diplomatic efforts helped to de-escalate the crisis. 

Pakistan's strategic restraint, mature handling, and Abhinandan's release ultimately prevented a full-scale war between two nuclear-armed neighbours, sources privy to the development reveal.

Background briefings, interviews, and perusal of public records reveal some stunning sequence of events following the Pulwama attack. 

The detailed accounts reveal the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, including India's strike, Pakistan's counter strike, the capture of Indian pilot Abhinandan Verthaman, and the looming threat of a missile war. Below is the timeline of these critical developments.

In December 2018, Pakistan's leadership received an intelligence report suggesting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might stage a false flag operation before the elections.

After the Pulwama attack on February 14, 2019, the military leadership met then-prime minister Imran Khan on February 15, to review the situation.

The military leadership made it clear that "Pakistan had no role in the attack," said an official during the briefing, and the meeting decided that stern action would follow if any Pakistani citizen was found involved. The US was also aware that Pakistan was not involved in the attack, commented a source.

On February 19, Khan addressed the nation on state TV and said, if credible evidence is provided, Pakistan will take necessary action and is ready to cooperate in a joint investigation. However, if India takes unilateral action, we will not hesitate for a minute and respond decisively.

His statement assured that Pakistan would take firm measures to protect its interests, commented an official while narrating the post Pulwama development.

Another source privy to the development informed: "Two days after the prime minister's clear stance on Pulwama, then-US secretary of state Mike Pompeo called the then-army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa on February 21, relaying that India was blaming Jaish-e-Mohammed for the attack. 

"The COAS categorically rejected the claim and repeated PM IK's statement that stern action will be taken against alleged culprits, if evidence is provided. The statement underscores Pakistan's unwavering commitment to rejecting any association with cross-border terrorism," commented the source.

Two days later, on the night of February 25, the Indian jets crossed into Pakistani airspace and fired missiles.

A well-placed source informed that following the top brass meeting at GHQ, a high-level meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) took place at the PM's office and, after considering various options, approved operation swift retort.

As a precaution, Gen Bajwa placed troops located in Fata on six hours' notice should the situation escalate, informed a source, adding that the decision was aimed at ensuring a robust, immediate response.

The source further said: "It was decided in the high-level meeting that the Pakistan Air Force will register five targets, take photographs, and drop missiles 500 yards away as a message to India that Pakistan could have destroyed them if it had chosen to." 

Moreover, it will respond during broad daylight.

Discussing the February 27 Operation Swift Retort, a source stated that Pakistan used JF-17 and Mirage fighter jets for the strike. Meanwhile, Indian pilot Abhinandan was reportedly drinking coffee in the mess when the alert sounded, causing Indian jets to be scrambled immediately.

"There were two teams sent for Operation Swift Retort. The first team was the strike team which went during broad daylight and within less than 48 hrs of Indian aggression, which totally surprised the Indians. While the second was the Combat Air Patrol (CAP) team. 

"Once the strike team registered its target and fired missiles and turned back, Indian fighter jets followed the Pakistani strike team, unaware of the CAP team.

"As the dogfight unfolded, the Indian Air Defence controller instructed Abhinandan to turn back because the Indians had spotted the CAP team. The CAP had missiles with an 80-kilometer range, whereas Indian jets carried Archer missiles with a 30-kilometer range," a source informed while narrating the events of February 27 morning during the Operation Swift Retort.

According to sources: "On February 27, two Indian fighter jets and one helicopter were lost. The helicopter was brought down by the Indian ground forces themselves, while two fighter jets were neutralised by the Pakistan Air Force. Abhinandan was flying a MiG-21, and another Indian aircraft, an Su-30, was present during the operation. 

"In addition to Abhinandan's MiG-21, the Su-30, was also struck by a missile and later crashed at the Pathankot Airbase after attempting to retreat. Its pilot managed to eject and survive, although the aircraft crashed. Satellite images of the Su-30 wreckage remain with the Pakistan Air Force," the sources claim. 

The sources claim that three more Indians jets were within the range of Pakistani CAP, but the Air Chief Marshal ordered not to engage to avoid escalating the situation further. Shortly after the capture of Indian pilot Abhinandan, panic spread in India. 

In the evening of the same day, the COAS was summoned by the Security Committee of Parliament to be briefed on the situation, however before the COAS could leave, he was called by CGS Lt Gen Nadeem Raza, who reported: "Intelligence sources indicate that India has decided to launch BrahMos missile attack on Pakistan's air bases." 

In response, Gen Bajwa immediately instructed DGSPD to prepare missiles with conventional warheads and assigned five targets: Bhuj, Nalia, Pathankot, Halwara and Awantipora, informed a source privy to the development.

Meanwhile, US Centcom commander General Joseph L Votel called Pakistani army chief General Bajwa, inquiring about the situation. According to sources, General Bajwa replied that they had credible intelligence that India was planning to target Pakistani air bases with BrahMos missiles. He warned: "If the Indians fire BrahMos missiles, Pakistan would respond with two missiles for every single missile launched." 

Gen Bajwa made it clear that there would be no holding back, a source privy to the developments informed.

Pakistan had intelligence that India planned to attack at 9pm that night but it did not happen, the Indians got the message and backed off.

After talking to Centcom Commander, Gen Bajwa left to attend a meeting of the Parliament's Security Committee where he found that all important political figures, including Pakistan Muslim League-N President Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan Peoples Party Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari, and other leaders, except then PM-Imran Khan.

According to a source, Khan had refused to attend because he did not want to meet with opposition leaders like Sharif and Zardari.

The source explained: "The absence of the premier, especially at a time when the nation was on the verge of war, deeply embarrassed the then-foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and other PTI members." 

This absence raised serious concerns about political unity during a critical moment.

Regarding the release of the captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Verthaman, a source informed that the next morning, Gen Bajwa received two calls from friendly countries. 

One from a friendly country from the north and second from an important Muslim country. They advised that although Pakistan acted maturely, further escalation must be avoided because both nations are nuclear-armed stating, "You have rubbed India's nose in the mud and you should now take action to de-escalate the situation." 

This crucial diplomatic advice helped in Abhinandan release, the source informed.

"Following these calls, the then-army chief met Khan and briefed him. Khan asked what should be done next, to which Gen Bajwa suggested releasing Abhinandan. Khan agreed, calling it a wise decision."

"Later, through a third country, India secretly conveyed its appreciation to Pakistan, for taking wise action to de-escalate the situation." 

On the question of the shooting down of an F-16 by IAF, the source laughed and said: "Rubbish. All PAF F-16s are accounted for, a fact verified by the US."

Originally published in The News