Country to face 43% water shortfall next month, warns Irsa

• Tarbela, Chashma reservoirs reach minimum operating levels.
• Winter snowfall in the Indus and Jhelum catchments down by 31%.
• Below-normal rain, above average mercury expected in April-June.

ISLAMABAD: The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has warned the country is set to face a significant 43% water shortfall in April due to a below-normal snowfall, declining river inflows, and a dry summer forecast, The News reported on Thursday.

The water shortage comes at a critical time, with wheat harvesting underway and preparations beginning for summer crops like cotton, rice, and sugarcane. 

With reservoir levels critically low, farmers — particularly in Punjab and Sindh, the country’s agricultural heartlands — are bracing for severe irrigation shortages that could threaten yields.

The Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC), which met under the chairmanship of Sahibzada Muhammad Shabbir, approved anticipated water availability criteria for the Kharif 2025 season (April–September) but only finalised allocations for April due to uncertain climate conditions.

The country’s key water reservoirs have plunged to critically low levels, hitting what officials describe as "dead levels", in a development that poses a serious threat to the country’s agricultural output.

The latest figures released by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) show that both Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs have reached their minimum operating levels, leaving no usable live water storage.

Tarbela, Pakistan's largest dam, is sitting exactly at 1,402 feet — its minimum threshold — with zero million acre-feet (MAF) of live storage.

Similarly, Chashma has dropped to 638.15 feet, also registering zero MAF. The Mangla reservoir, which is Pakistan’s second-largest, is faring only slightly better, holding 20 feet of water above its dead level of 1,050 feet.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) informed the committee that winter snowfall in the Indus and Jhelum catchments was recorded at just 26.8 inches — 31% lower than the normal 49.7 inches. This, coupled with below-normal rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures forecast for April to June, is expected to reduce water availability for irrigation and hydropower.

The shortfall poses a significant challenge to farmers, who rely on Indus water for the upcoming sowing season. The Kharif crops, including cotton, rice, and sugarcane, depend on sufficient water supplies, and any shortages could impact agricultural yields. Irsa also reviewed the system’s performance during the Rabi 2024-25 season (October-March) and noted that water shortages reached 18% as of March 20, slightly exceeding the anticipated 16%. Despite the higher shortfall, officials expressed satisfaction with the seasonal water management.

Given the unclear climatic conditions, the committee opted to approve water distribution for April only, with plans to reassess the situation in early May.

"The evolving weather patterns and lower snowmelt require careful monitoring," an Irsa official said, adding that further cuts in water distribution could be on the table if inflows remain low.

With climate change intensifying water scarcity, experts have urged authorities to implement better conservation strategies and reservoir management to mitigate future crises. The advisory committee meeting was attended by representatives from provincial irrigation departments, Wapda, and senior officials overseeing the Tarbela and Mangla dams.