Insurgent deaths outnumber civilian, security losses in first quarter of 2025

• First quarter of 2025 saw 13% reduction in violence.
• KP and Balochistan remain epicentres of violence.
• Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end.
  

For the first time in 12 years, the first quarter of 2025 saw some promising trends in the security landscape of Pakistan, with the fatalities of militants and insurgents outnumbering the cumulative losses of civilians and security forces personnel.

Its key findings, issued by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) here on Saturday, revealed notably fewer fatal losses among civilians and security forces personnel compared to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 anda  nearly 13% reduction in overall violence, The News reported. 

Despite progress, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remain epicentres of violence, accounting for 98% of all fatalities, with attacks growing bolder and militant tactics evolving, including the unprecedented hijacking of the Jaffar Express. Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end if current trends persist, potentially making 2025 one of Pakistan’s deadliest years.

During Q1 2025, Pakistan witnessed 897 violence-linked fatalities and 542 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws. The tally of casualties, totalling 1,439, stemmed from 354 incidents of violence, including terror attacks and counter-terror operations. Compared to Q4 2024, where 1028 fatalities were recorded, these figures mark a nearly 13% decline in overall violence.

The majority of the fatalities and incidents of violence were recorded in KP and Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 98% of all fatalities and 94% of incidents cumulatively.

Individually, while KP suffered over 63% of all violence-related fatalities compared to Q4 2024, it witnessed a promising 18% reduction in violence. Similarly, Balochistan suffered 35% of all fatalities in the period under review, and compared to last quarter, it recorded an alarming 15% surge in violence. The comparison disregards the surge recorded in other provinces/ regions as the number of fatalities remains very low.

Another promising highlight of this quarter was that the outlaws’ fatalities outnumbered the fatalities suffered by civilians and security forces combined (495 vs. 402).

Against 495 outlaws eliminated, the civilians and security personnel suffered 402 fatalities, which account for nearly 19% less losses compared to outlaws. Their combined losses accounted for nearly 45% of all fatalities compared to outlaws making up over 55% of the total recorded this quarter.

It is for the first time in 12 years that the number of outlaws’ fatalities surpassed the cumulative fatalities of civilians and security forces.

Equally positive, the civilians and security personnel suffered almost 50% and 13% fewer fatal losses, respectively, in the period under review compared to Q4 2024. In contrast, the fatalities of outlaws, including militants and insurgents, increased by over 20%.

Based on the claims and the newspaper reports, the number of fatalities from violence claimed by the militant and insurgent outfits appears to have dropped in Q1 2025 from 316 in Q4 2024 to 229, marking a 28% decrease.

Over 500 people suffered violence (313 fatalities and 217 injuries) during the holy month of Ramazan (March 2025), with various outlawed groups, including the TTP, TTP-Gul Bahadur Group, ISKP, BLA and Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA), proudly claiming responsibility for these attacks.