Opec flags rising uncertainty, trims global oil demand outlook for 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slightly lowered its forecast for oil demand growth on Monday, citing the impact of US tariffs on the world economy.

The Saudi-led oil cartel said in its monthly report that it now expects demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.

The “minor adjustment” was mainly due to first-quarter data and “the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs”.

The Opec now sees global demand reaching a total of 105.05 million bpd this year.

It also slightly lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3%.

“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics,” the Opec said in the report.

Oil prices sank to a four-year low last week, dipping under $60 per barrel over concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Prices were up on Monday, with the international benchmark futures contract, Brent North Sea crude, rising 1.3% to $65.62 per barrel.

The Opec's oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.

The IEA is scheduled to update its oil demand forecasts on Tuesday.