Stocks steady after early losses, end higher on investor resilience

• Analysts say caution to prevail until escalation risks become clearer.
• Volatility surges after India's unwarranted response to IIOJK attack.
• Index hit intraday low of 113,716.60, marking a drop of 1,303.21 points.

Stocks closed on a positive note on Friday, paring massive early losses in an extremely erratic session, as investor sentiment remained resilient amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index rose by 449.53 points, or 0.39%, to settle at 115,469.34. Trading volume stood at 213.6 million shares, with a total market value of over Rs20 billion.

In early trade, the index touched a high of 115,844.88 points, showing a brief gain of 825.07 points or 0.72% over the previous close of 115,019.81. However, the momentum failed to hold, and the index later dipped to an intraday low of 113,716.60, marking a decline of 1,303.21 points or -1.13%.

Independent investment and economic analyst AAH Soomro said: "The fear is escalating as tensions between India and Pakistan have increased after attacks on Indian tourists.

“Investors would shy away for a few weeks or until clarity is observed over the risk of escalation," he added.

The market remains volatile following New Delhi's response to the deadly attack in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), which included suspending a bilateral water treaty, cutting diplomatic ties, and imposing travel restrictions. Pakistan has retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian flights and expelling Indian diplomats.

In parallel to geopolitical strains, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) flagged protectionist global policies as a rising risk in its Financial Stability Review 2024. 

It warned that new US tariffs and a shift in global trade dynamics could hurt economic growth and complicate financial conditions for emerging markets like Pakistan.

Additionally, SBP's weekly data revealed a $367 million drop in foreign exchange reserves, which now stand at $10.21 billion. The central bank attributed the decline to debt repayments and limited financial inflows. Total reserves, including those held by commercial banks, fell to $15.436 billion.

Despite March’s record $1.2 billion current account surplus, the country experienced a $97 million deficit in February. The SBP emphasised that sustaining recovery hinges on continued progress in structural reforms and building external buffers.

As the week closes, investor caution remains elevated, with markets watching closely for diplomatic developments and signs of fiscal and monetary stability.